NEW DELHI: Travelers from Dubai and the UK were the main sources of Covid-19 imports to India, according to an analytical study conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Mandi.
According to the research, which has been published in the Journal of Travel Medicine, Covid-19 was induced into the states of India mainly due to international travel.
The study also found that infected cases from Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh played a minor role in spreading the disease outside of their communities. While infected people in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir, and Karnataka played an important role in local transmission, some of them also causing interstate transfers.
“We tracked the spread of Covid-19 and its spread from the global to the national level and identified some super-spreaders that played a central role in the transmission of the disease in India. The spread of Covid-19 in phase one was tracked using the travel history of patients, and found that most of the transmissions were local, “Sarita Azad, an assistant professor at IIT Mandi, told PTI.
“The research team has used the travel history of infected patients from January to April as the main data source and created a social network that describes the spread in the initial phase of the pandemic. The research found that the maximum number of connections were established from Dubai (144) and the United Kingdom (64) ”, he added.
Azad explained that statistical metrics calculated from the data revealed that Dubai and the UK played a crucial role in the spread of the disease in the Indian states and were the main sources of Covid-19 imports to India. .
“The centrality of Dubai’s eigenvector was the highest which made it the most influential node. Statistical metrics calculated from the data revealed that Dubai and the United Kingdom played a crucial role in the spread of the disease across the states. from India and were the main sources of Covid-19 imports in India.
“Based on the class of modularity, different clusters were shown to form in Indian states, demonstrating the formation of a multi-layered social network structure. A significant increase in confirmed cases was reported in states such as Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh during the first phase of the nationwide blockade, which lasted from March 25 to April 14, “he said.
“The modularity class of states like Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh was low. Therefore, it is likely that infected cases from these states played a minor role in spreading the disease outside their communities. While states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka played an important role in local broadcasting, and some of them also caused interstate transfers, “he added.
Azad, who conducted the analytical study, along with his student Sushma Devi, said: “When a pandemic like Covid-19 subsides, good research work serves as a record for the future. In this work, we have used real-time data. and demonstrated how the disease spread from the global to the national level from January 30 to April 6. This will be an important contribution to understanding the transmission of the disease in India during the initial phase of the pandemic. ”
India’s number of Covid-19 cases approached 60 lakh with 88,600 new infections reported on Sunday, while the number of people who recovered from the disease exceeded 49 lakh, bringing the national recovery rate to 82.46 percent, according to the Ministry of Health of the Union.
Total coronavirus cases rose to 59,92,532, while the death toll rose to 94,503 with 1,124 people succumbing to the disease within 24 hours, data updated at 8 a.m. showed.
According to the research, which has been published in the Journal of Travel Medicine, Covid-19 was induced into the states of India mainly due to international travel.
The study also found that infected cases from Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh played a minor role in spreading the disease outside of their communities. While infected people in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir, and Karnataka played an important role in local transmission, some of them also causing interstate transfers.
“We tracked the spread of Covid-19 and its spread from the global to the national level and identified some super-spreaders that played a central role in the transmission of the disease in India. The spread of Covid-19 in phase one was tracked using the travel history of patients, and found that most of the transmissions were local, “Sarita Azad, an assistant professor at IIT Mandi, told PTI.
“The research team has used the travel history of infected patients from January to April as the main data source and created a social network that describes the spread in the initial phase of the pandemic. The research found that the maximum number of connections were established from Dubai (144) and the United Kingdom (64) ”, he added.
Azad explained that statistical metrics calculated from the data revealed that Dubai and the UK played a crucial role in the spread of the disease in the Indian states and were the main sources of Covid-19 imports to India. .
“The centrality of Dubai’s eigenvector was the highest which made it the most influential node. Statistical metrics calculated from the data revealed that Dubai and the United Kingdom played a crucial role in the spread of the disease across the states. from India and were the main sources of Covid-19 imports in India.
“Based on the class of modularity, different clusters were shown to form in Indian states, demonstrating the formation of a multi-layered social network structure. A significant increase in confirmed cases was reported in states such as Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh during the first phase of the nationwide blockade, which lasted from March 25 to April 14, “he said.
“The modularity class of states like Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh was low. Therefore, it is likely that infected cases from these states played a minor role in spreading the disease outside their communities. While states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka played an important role in local broadcasting, and some of them also caused interstate transfers, “he added.
Azad, who conducted the analytical study, along with his student Sushma Devi, said: “When a pandemic like Covid-19 subsides, good research work serves as a record for the future. In this work, we have used real-time data. and demonstrated how the disease spread from the global to the national level from January 30 to April 6. This will be an important contribution to understanding the transmission of the disease in India during the initial phase of the pandemic. ”
India’s number of Covid-19 cases approached 60 lakh with 88,600 new infections reported on Sunday, while the number of people who recovered from the disease exceeded 49 lakh, bringing the national recovery rate to 82.46 percent, according to the Ministry of Health of the Union.
Total coronavirus cases rose to 59,92,532, while the death toll rose to 94,503 with 1,124 people succumbing to the disease within 24 hours, data updated at 8 a.m. showed.
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