Healthcare workers collect a nasal swab sample to test for Covid-19 in Hyderabad, on Sept.17, 2020. (AP Photo / Mahesh Kumar A.)
Recovery rate is the wrong metric to focus on and essentially diverts attention from the more than 1 million active cases that are still growing, albeit at a lower rate, experts say. This recovery rate will eventually reach at least 98%, if not more, even without any specific intervention given the very low mortality rates, they argue, adding that it is the economic recovery rate that the government should focus on now instead. of Covid recovery. Speed.
- Last update: September 21, 2020 11:41 PM IST
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“India reports more than 90,000 recoveries for the third day in a row. Total recovered cases are approaching 43 kakh, the highest in the world. India’s recovery rate surpasses the milestone of 80%,” a ministry statement read. Health and Family Welfare on Monday afternoon.
India, for some time now, has seen a steady increase in the recovery rate of Covid-19 cases. But, is the increase in recoveries an indicator of the improvement of the situation in the country in the face of the pandemic or is this apparent “ray of light” really a misnomer?
“The percentage of recovery is of very little importance from an epidemiological perspective. It tells us nothing about the current state of the pandemic as it is a cumulative measure,” says Professor Gautam Menon, professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University. .
Professor Menon says that for Covid-19, with an infection mortality rate of around 0.1% to 0.5%, more than 99% of those infected will eventually recover. Therefore, reporting a continuing recovery rate that is increasing contains little information, as that is exactly what should be happening.
A senior member of the National Working Group on Covid-19, while speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “Our base is large. If we add more than 90,000 cases a day and a thousand people are dying, the recovery rate will be pushed. up. It doesn’t mean anything. It will even cross 90-95%. “
Testing the positivity rates and their trend would be the most significant indicator of the current progress of the pandemic, experts say. “The growth / changes in the number of critically ill patients is also significant, since the availability of medical care and infrastructure, such as oxygen cylinders and ICUs, will determine whether they will survive or not. Mortality and its trends are undoubtedly a measure. of the ultimate impact of the pandemic on our society, “says Professor Menon.
India’s positivity rate has been well above 5%. The World Health Organization says countries should aim to keep the positivity rate below 5%. With nearly 7 lakh of testing on Monday, India’s positivity rate, the number of samples positive to those tested, shot up to 11.88%.
Experts say India must now focus on the extent of morbidity in initially healthy people who contracted Covid. This is important, as we increasingly see that recovery does not mean that illness may not have lasting consequences for a person’s health afterward.
Health economist Rijo M John also says that of the parameters to measure India’s situation, the percentage of recovery is of little importance. “First, what we call recoveries are mostly highs from Covid-Care facilities and incidents have been reported of people getting sick again and some even dying after being discharged. Under the discharge policy, the Patients who are mild / presymptomatic are discharged 10 days after the onset of symptoms and do not report fever for 3 days. They are discharged with self-isolation advice for a further 7 days. This practice does not have to be foolproof. ” says John.
He also says there is little uniformity in the performance of states in terms of ensuring the recovery of patients. “It varies significantly between states / UTs ranging from 54% in Meghalaya to 95% in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. A much higher prevalence of mild to moderate Covid-19 infections among relatively younger people in India should be the main reason behind the high recoveries, “he says.
John also says that recovery rates are the wrong metric to focus on and essentially diverts attention from the more than 1 million active cases that are still growing, albeit at a lower rate. “This recovery rate will eventually reach at least 98%, if not more, even without any specific intervention, given the very low mortality rates. In fact, I think it is the economic recovery rate that the government should focus on now. of the Covid-19 recovery rate, “he says.
The focus should remain on reducing the spread of the infection and ensuring that the tests remain high so that eventually the positivity rate is lowered. The average 7-day daily test positive rate has risen steadily over the past week and now stands at 9.2%. This is because the number of tests that India did during the last 7 days has been about 7% lower than that which it did during the previous 7-day period and yet India reported almost the same number of cases (about 6.4 lakhs) in each of these 7-day periods.
So should India get any satisfaction from the fact that weekly cases have started to decline? “It is too early to say whether we have really reduced the number of new infections. Because, the number of new cases on average stayed the same this week compared to last week, despite less testing. Therefore, It seems that the tests have been higher, we may have also found a greater number of cases, “says John.
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