With India’s China Study Group (CSG) meeting on Friday, the stage has been set for a meeting of the military commanders of the two countries in the coming week, to discuss disengagement and subsequent troop withdrawal. of the Ladakh PLA.
The outcome of the military commanders meeting will largely depend on the PLA’s posture along the Royal Line of Control (LAC) in Ladakh and its deployment to occupied Aksai China.
Consider the following:
1. The PLA continues to accumulate troops in occupied Aksai Chin and has begun rotating troops in LAC, indicating that it is preparing for a long haul across the border.
2. A disconnection and de-escalation has been discussed and agreed at the level of Special Representatives (July 5) and Ministers of Foreign Affairs (September 10), but the EPL has conditioned the reestablishment of the status quo ante in LAC, thus putting all the exercise in danger. Rather than withdraw entirely to base camps, the PLA wants to have a foothold in the north shore territory of Pangong Tso to show its stamp of authority. During discussions, the PLA has talked about retreating to the pre-April position of the spur on finger 8 in the lake, but wants to leave 50 soldiers at the current position, eight kilometers up on finger 4. In certain places, it wants to place cameras to monitor Indian movements. Basically, he wants to set aside the territory for future negotiations. This has been rejected by the Indian side.
3. Just as the PLA has reached its perceived LAC on the north shore of the lake, the Indian side has reached its perceived LAC on the south shore, thanks to the courageous preventive action of the Indian Army from 29 to 30 August. The only option to restore peace and tranquility is for both sides to return to their base camps and stop fighting the sticking points in LAC’s 1,597 km in Ladakh. While the Indian side is willing to do this, the PLA sees this as a loss of face for a rising global power and would rather create a new normal in LAC.
4. There is a significant element of mistrust about China’s intent. The Indian army is convinced that the PLA wants to stay in the invaded territory, a kind of reward for launching an aggression against India in LAC in May. This is unacceptable to the Narendra Modi government.
5. With the weather getting worse, both armies will go into survival mode this winter instead of starting operations with each other. The wind chill is deadly in these areas, with temperatures typically reaching minus 25 degrees Celsius in Pangong Tso and Chushul. High altitude pulmonary edema (HAPO) and acute mountain sickness will become killers this winter, not bullets.
6. Pakistan’s move to create a fifth province in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) in the northern occupied areas is being driven by the Chinese through the Pakistani military, as Beijing wants security for the CPEC corridor, which it also wants expand. This means that the Line of Control (LOC) between India and Pakistan will become the border, and GB will be assimilated to the Islamic state. The main reason behind GB’s move is to expand the CPEC corridor as China wants to create an alternative to the Strait of Malacca sea route by boosting hydrocarbon and mineral supplies from West Asia, Africa and Afghanistan through the new route. With India blocking all Pakistani proposals at the World Bank for infrastructure development in occupied Kashmir and northern areas on the ground of disputed areas, usurping the Shiite-dominated GB by Sunni Pakistan will aid in the expansion of CPEC. , and it will also protect those already sunk. Chinese investment in CPEC.
7. The expansion of CPEC will also help China to control the restless populations of Buddhist Tibet and Muslim Xinjiang, as economic growth will fuel the militarization of both autonomous regions. China has already begun an expansion of its air bases in Tibet and Xinjiang by building underground corrals for fighter jets, as well as the deployment of front-line missiles.
8. The PLA’s aggression from Daulet Beg Oldi to Chumar in Ladakh is part of a dual strategy designed to secure the depth of highway number 219 from Lhasa to Kashgar, as well as to push India to give in to the construction of a highway. Parallel across the Karakoram Pass to rival the one through the Khunjerab Pass north of the Siachen Glacier.
9. It is because China has big plans for CPEC, that it has no incentive to solve the border problem with India, as this will permanently block Beijing’s ambitions in South Asia.
10) With Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar now close allies, China’s next move could be to fix the border seemingly in Bhutan’s favor as it did with Yangon. Once the border is established, diplomatic ties will be opened with Thimphu and then the kingdom can follow the path of Nepal. If this happens, the protection of India will be complete.
This may seem like a complete plan for China, except for the fact that the Modi government will contest Beijing on each and every point.
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