September 12, 2020 6:50:44 pm
Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of a meeting of SCO Foreign Ministers in Moscow (AP / PTI via Xinhua News Agency of China)
The Foreign Ministers of India and China, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Wang Yi, reached a ‘five point’ agreement to reduce the prevailing tension on the Ladakh border during their talks in Moscow on the sidelines of the SCO Summit on 10 September. The Indian Express spoke with Major General Prof GG Dwivedi (retd), who has commanded troops in this sector and served as Defense Attaché in China, to put these talks in perspective.
How important were these conversations?
The process of dialogue between nations is vital, especially when the two are neighbors with tense relations. This meeting between the two foreign ministers was an attempt to break the deadlock, as a series of multi-level talks have taken place to no avail. It was also a good view, especially for China, as the communist leadership was eager to show its sincerity in solving problems through dialogue.
It is in line with the Chinese policy of “talking and fighting simultaneously” (yi bian dan-yi bian da). Furthermore, he also credited Moscow’s role in setting the stage for the talks. Some experts have called these talks a step back from the brink of war, which they are not. The current situation is well below the threshold of conflict if we speak of the stepped ladder.
Can you briefly explain the escalation and de-escalation matrix?
The genesis of the current confrontation was the aggression undertaken by the PLA in the form of incursions of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Given the scale, extent and timing, the operation was well planned at the highest level, that is, the Central Military Commission (CMC) headed by President Xi Jinping as its chairman.
While the political intention was to send a strong message to Delhi to defeat Beijing’s interest, the military objective was to achieve quick territorial gains in the Depsang, Galwan and Pangong Tso area. This marked the first step on the escalator, which almost went according to plan for China. The rapid deployment of mirrors by the Indian Army took the climb to the next level.
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A bloody skirmish in Galwan on June 15 and the rapid build-up on both sides led to a sharp escalation in which 40,000 PLA soldiers were deployed with almost the same number on the Indian side. However, the situation continued to be regulated by talks at the military-diplomatic and political level. India’s counterattack in Chushul Through the occupation of the Kailash Range from August 29-30, it took the escalation to a higher level, but well below the threshold of conflict.
Technically, the conflict situation consists of actions such as the construction of fortifications, clashes between patrols, laying mines, air intrusions along with certain provocative political actions.
The de-escalation process begins with the gradual withdrawal of troops along with the dismantling of the war infrastructure, withdrawal, and finally withdrawal to designated locations.
What is the importance of the five point action plan?
Reiterate the process of dialogue, disassociation and relief from the situation. All of this was comprehensively addressed in the five previous agreements listed below:
• The 1993 ‘Peacekeeping and Tranquility Agreement’ forms the basis of all follow-up agreements.
• 1996 ‘Confidence-building measures’ denounces the use of force
• 2005 ‘Standard operating procedures’ and patrol modalities.
• 2012 ‘Consultation and Cooperation Process’
• 2013 Border Cooperation Agreement, signed in the aftermath of the Depsang intrusion by the PLA
No additional agreements are required. The moot point is their implementation, as they have been violated by the PLA in pursuit of their “Nibble and Negotiate” strategy. In fact, all of these agreements have only helped China consolidate its claims over a period of time by waging a war ‘without bullets’.
Editorial | While Delhi must negotiate with China, it cannot again confuse Beijing’s diplomatic words with the actions of the PLA.
The strategic guidance mechanism evolved in Wuhan and later reconfirmed in Mamallapuram between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping has not been met despite Xi being the PLA commander-in-chief.
What should be the future strategy of India?
China has been unable to achieve its goals politically or militarily due to India’s firm and resolute response. This will definitely be reflected in Xi Jinping’s image of Iron Man. It’s worth noting that Xi would like to add to his achievements that can be flaunted during the Communist Party of China (COC) centennial celebrations in 2021, and the party’s twentieth congress, a crucial five-year Communist Party event scheduled for 2022. ..
The level of force deployed by China at Aksai Chin with two strike divisions (four motorized divisions in Chushul sector and six mechanized divisions in Depsang) and 150 front-line fighter jets stationed at forward bases belies China’s intention to reduce climbing. Therefore, India must continue its proactive stance not only in Ladakh but throughout LAC. After all, it is the position on the ground that will decide the trajectory of the talks at the negotiating table.
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