India and China buy time to heal old border fissures

After months of worsening tensions on their disputed border with the Himalayas, India and China surprised many by announcing that troops would quickly withdraw.

The joint announcement followed a marathon meeting between India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Moscow.

It came despite spiraling rhetoric among nuclear-armed neighbors, which had suggested growing hostility.

Earlier in the week, the Chinese state-run Global Times had said that Chinese troops “would quickly deal a severe blow to Indian troops and they would all be annihilated” if Delhi provoked a war.

India had also upped the ante, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said “there should be no question” about the country’s determination to protect its territorial integrity.

Both countries still have a huge deployment in the region where they have overlapping territorial claims, and overcoming their differences will not be easy.

So what made countries agree to reduce escalation, when few expected it to happen?

Many observers, including Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center think tank, believe both countries were ready for a confrontation, but also realized that war, even limited, was not an option.

“It would have been catastrophic both for the countries and for the region as a whole. The stakes in the economy were too high to risk a war,” he said.

The fact that Jaishankar served as ambassador to Beijing for many years and is known to share good relations with Chinese diplomats seems to have helped.

It broke the ice, Kugelman says, adding that personal relationships often play a role in crucial diplomatic negotiations.

The weather, an unlikely factor, may also have played a role. The highest ridges of the Galwan Valley become inhospitable in the winters.

Lieutenant General (Retired) Vinod Bhatia, who served in the Indian Army, says troops are used to operating in difficult conditions, but “given a chance, both armies would want to avoid that.”

Reports also suggest that Indian troops recently occupied some ridges overlooking Chinese posts. No country has officially confirmed the reports.

“India may have used this advantage as a bargaining chip,” adds Lieutenant General Bhatia.

Both countries also have many other crises to deal with. The number of Covid-19 cases in India continues to rise at an alarming rate and its economy is suffering. Any armed confrontation would affect the country’s ability to overcome these problems.

Analysts say it is difficult to predict.

Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the think tank Stimson Center in Washington, says the joint statement lacks details.

First, it does not mention the Line of Real Control (LAC), the de facto border that separates the countries.

“Several points throughout LAC are controversial where the troops are still stationed, so there is no clarity on the resolution of these problems,” he says.

De-escalation takes time, says Lieutenant General Bhatia, and it will take longer in the current scenario.

“The area is too big and the commanders will need time to come to an understanding. Talks at the military level will take place when tensions are still high and emotions are raw,” he says.

Both countries want to maintain the status quo. And that’s complicated, Ms. Yun says, because the two sides define the status quo differently.

“Chinese troops have gone deep into the territory that India claims, and it is unclear whether they will abandon those positions.”

What caused the escalation will also determine how quickly the disconnect can occur. A major factor cited as a source of tension is a new highway connecting Indian army stations in the region with a forward air base.

But Ms. Yun believes that the road cannot be the only source because it took 20 years to build and “was not a secret.”

She believes that many factors, including India’s controversial decision to repeal a law that granted special status to the region and the improvement of Washington’s relations with Delhi, played a role.

“Beijing felt that punishing India will give a warning to Delhi and Washington at the same time. But what they did not calculate was that India will refuse to back down,” he says.

So, they became more aggressive, he says, adding that this was reflected in statements by Beijing officials in recent days. Aggression has been a key factor in China’s foreign policy, particularly in recent months. And Chinese state media often remind the country’s neighbors of its superior military power.

Officials in Delhi and Beijing were largely restrained in their comments in June and July, even after the Galwan clash that left Indian soldiers dead.

Kugleman says this was because they did not want to undo the efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping to improve relations. The two have met 18 times since Modi came to power in 2014.

“But it all fell apart in the last few days, and now it will be interesting to see how China and India sell the ad to their people,” he says.

Ms. Yun says China will find it difficult to reverse the rhetoric because it “cannot appear weak or intimidated by India.”

The resolution of these core issues, including pending disputes dating back decades, across LAC, which spans 3,440 km (2,100 miles), will not be resolved in a few days.

“So it’s a good start,” says Kugleman. “Talks are better than not talking, but we must be cautiously optimistic.”