The survey also showed that by May-June, the infection had already spread to rural areas of India. (Representative)
New Delhi:
India may have had 6.4 million coronavirus cases in May, indicates the first national sero-survey conducted by the leading medical body ICMR. The survey, published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, suggests that 0.73 percent of adults in the country were exposed to Covid-19.
The survey, conducted from May 11 to June 4, analyzed blood samples from 28,000 people in 21 states.
Seropositivity was the highest in the age group 18 to 45 years (43.3 percent), followed by those between 46 and 60 years (39.5 percent); it was the lowest among those over 60 years of age (17.2%).
A total of 64,68,388 adult infections were estimated in India as of early May, according to the survey report.
For every confirmed COVID-19 case in May, there were 82-130 infections that went undetected. The survey report said that overall infections were low and that less than one percent of the adult population was exposed to COVID-19 by then. But this also meant that the majority of the population was still susceptible to the highly contagious virus.
“The results of our survey indicated that the overall seroprevalence in India was low, with less than one percent of the adult population exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in mid-May 2020. The low prevalence observed in most of the districts indicates that India is in the initial phase of the epidemic and the majority of the Indian population is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, “the report said.
The survey also showed that around May and June, the infections had already spread to rural India.
India has been battling the coronavirus for a few months, but the possibility of a shift in cases from urban areas to small towns and villages in the country is concerning.
A large part of the rural coronavirus figures are likely to come from states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where a sizeable population lives in villages and small towns.
Even in districts with zero or a low number of detected Covid cases, people were found to be infected. This could be due to a shortage of testing and poor access to testing laboratories, leading to underdetection of cases in these districts. The survey suggested that there was a need to strengthen surveillance and increase testing of suspected cases in these areas. The report said: “The current findings of seropositivity in the strata of districts with zero to low incidence of COVID-19 cases underscore the need to strengthen surveillance and increase testing of suspected cases in these areas.”
Seropositivity was highest at 69.4 percent in rural areas (villages), while in urban slums it was 15.9 percent and in non-slum urban areas it was 14.6 percent. .
But the survey was also conducted mainly in rural areas. The survey says that only about a quarter (25.9 percent) of the conglomerates surveyed were from urban areas.
She highlighted the need to continue implementing specific containment measures, including testing all those with symptoms, isolating positive cases, and following up on high-risk contacts to slow transmission and prevent overloading the health system.
Men living in urban slums and in occupations at high risk of exposure to potentially infected people were associated with seropositivity.
.
