An IAF Hercules military transport plane prepares to land at an air base in Leh on Tuesday. (AFP)
The Chinese deployment in eastern Ladakh at the moment is not tactical, top government sources say, adding that India is “fully prepared” if the talks do not work out.
- CNN-News18
- Last update: September 9, 2020 11:21 PM IST
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Will there be a full-blown war between India and China in the short term? The assessment at the highest levels of the Indian security establishment is clear. The threshold of war has not yet been reached.
“It is difficult to predict the course of the confrontation, but we have not reached the threshold of war. Things turn into a full-blown conflict, but so far there have only been minor punctures. The Chinese deployment at the moment is not tactical, “said a senior government source.
So how will things unfold in the weeks and months to come? The reading within the government is that there will be minor escalations like the one on August 29-30, when the Chinese military tried to occupy the Indian highlands on the southern shore of Lake Pangong. There is also complete clarity that the confrontation and the direction it takes is not being controlled by the local commanders or the Western Theater Command, but by the top leadership in China.
“You just can’t trust the Chinese. On the morning of the 29th, the Chinese commander in Chushul had spoken with his Indian counterpart about following established protocol and not making any movements at night. And yet, that same night, he moved his men to our posts. “
In eastern Ladakh, the northern and southern shores, Rezang La and Rechin La remain on the razor’s edge.
India in dominant position
India is now in a dominant position on Finger 4 on the north shore. A “significant number” of Indian troops are sitting on the heights overlooking the Chinese outposts, shaking the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
On the ridge, Indian and Chinese troops are face to face, barely 100 meters apart. On the coast, they are separated by a couple of kilometers.
At South Bank, India dominates strategic heights, but Black Top is not one of them. Government sources clarified that Black Top has always been with the Chinese, who continue their daily intimidation tactics on the south bank.
New red line
“The Chinese move troops and tanks, and try to get closer to the Indian positions. We ask them not to cross the line, after some time they come back. They know that if they advance further, they will have to pay a military cost, ”said the source.
To avoid a kind of confrontation in the Galwan Valley, the Indian army has made it clear to the Chinese that its perimeter, which is defined by barbed wire, cannot be broken. If Chinese troops cross it, they will have to be prepared for a “professional response” from the Indian army, which means that the possibility of gunfire cannot be ruled out.
But how did such a large build-up of Chinese troops come about without the Indian army noticing? Government sources deny intelligence failures.
“We knew the EPL had come in with a large number, but we assumed this was their regular deployment for the campaign season. What we didn’t realize is that they would come suddenly and occupy areas, “said the source.
50,000 PLA troops in Ladakh
The Chinese have 50,000 soldiers, 150 fighter jets, surface-to-air ballistic missiles and rocket forces deployed in eastern Ladakh. The Indian Army is seeking nothing less than a complete withdrawal, where any further deployment “goes back to barracks.”
“We want the talks to be successful. After Galwan (clashes) and before the aggression of August 29, we were confident that the talks would be successful. The feeling we got from the defense ministers meeting was that the Chinese don’t want a war. We have requested another round of talks at the Corps Cdr level. They have agreed. But we are fully prepared if things don’t work out. “
The buildup on the Indian side has been going on for the past three months. The army is almost finishing its advanced winter half. It is going to be a long, harsh and tense winter in eastern Ladakh. But there is a question that has not yet been answered. Why did the Chinese fight India in the middle of a pandemic?
“I wish we knew. We ask ourselves that question every day. “
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