A new confrontation between Indian and Chinese troops has added to the complexity of the situation in the Royal Line of Control (LAC) ahead of a meeting of the foreign ministers of the two countries that is considered crucial for a breakthrough in the impasse on the disputed border.
Hours before Foreign Minister S Jaishankar left for Moscow, where he will meet his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Chinese troops tried to move closer to a position. India across LAC on Monday. night and fired into the air when deterred.
The confrontation, experts said, underscored the fragile situation throughout LAC, especially after several incidents on the southern shore of Pangong Lake on Aug. 29-30. It is the first time that shots have been fired along the unmarked border since 1975, when four Indian soldiers were killed in a Chinese ambush in the Arunachal Pradesh sector.
Jaishankar will meet Wang on the sidelines of the SCO foreign ministers meeting on September 10, the first time the two leaders have met face to face since the border confrontation began in May. They spoke by phone on June 17, two days after a deadly clash in the Galwan Valley that left 20 Indian soldiers dead and caused unspecified Chinese casualties.
Taking part in an online interaction on Monday night to mark the launch of his book The India Way, Jaishankar noted the dire situation in LAC and underlined the need for “very deep talks between the two sides at the political level.” He also made it clear that India would not disassociate the border confrontation from the broader bilateral relationship.
Vipin Narang, associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said Monday’s confrontation illustrates the urgency of reducing friction between the two sides’ troops.
“I don’t think India or China have an incentive to go to war over the border dispute, but the increasing intensity and persistence of friction, coupled with air activity and the presence of loaded firearms can cause them to ‘stumble’ on the war, “he said.
“An accidental or unintentional incident at a local flash point could now really fuel a broader conflict that no government wants, as forces continue to come into contact with each other,” Narang added.
At least half a dozen meetings held by the two sides’ local brigade commanders since the Aug. 29-30 incidents have failed to quell tensions on the southern shore of Pangong Lake, which has become the latest sticking point. . Several meetings of corps commanders and the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (CMMC) on border issues have also failed to carry out the stalled withdrawal and de-escalation process.
Negotiations have stalled on several key issues, including how to determine how troops should withdraw at sticking points, people familiar with the developments said on condition of anonymity. Chinese officials have been insisting that troops from both sides should withdraw at the same distance, while the Indian side has said the withdrawal should be determined according to the time it takes for troops from each side to deploy to LAC, they said. people.
“For example, in some sections, a kilometer can be covered by troops on one side in 10 minutes, while a kilometer on the other side can be covered by troops in five minutes. Both parties must withdraw to a distance that requires the same time to deploy at the border, ”said one of the people cited above.
Experts said the upcoming meeting between Jaishankar and Wang acquires importance after the lack of a breakthrough in recent talks between Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe, who also met on the sidelines of a meeting of the OCS in Moscow on September 4.
Wei maintained that responsibility for the tensions rests entirely with India, while Singh said that the actions of the Chinese troops, including their aggressive behavior and attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo, violated several bilateral agreements.
Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies at Gateway House, said the latest standoff should be seen as “part of Chinese mind games ahead of the meeting of foreign ministers to pressure the Indian side to make concessions.” .
“The Chinese are very aware of how the Indian government projects the link between the border tensions and the general relationship. At the same time, the Indian side has emphasized negotiations and dialogue for a friendly settlement. No one can hope for a miracle in the dialogue in Moscow, but everyone looks at it with some hope, “he said.
.
