The country is likely to experience normal to above normal rains in September, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
In the second week of September, monsoon rains are likely to be poor in most parts of the country, including northwestern and central India. But it is likely to resume after September 17.
“We have indicated in our weekly weather update that the withdrawal of the monsoon may begin in the western parts of Rajasthan in the week ending 18 September. But we also expect a low pressure area to develop over the west central Bay of Bengal at that time. So while the monsoon retreat may begin, we are still studying when it is likely to retreat completely. We expect normal to above normal rains in Kerala, Karnataka and the coastal areas of Maharashtra around and after September 17, ”said M Mohapatra, IMD CEO, at a press conference on Monday.
The usual date for the monsoon to begin retreating is September 17.
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He added that the intra-seasonal variability of monsoon rain was high this year, with June receiving excess rain; July registered a deficit and August registered excess rain by a very high margin. “Active MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation – MJO is characterized by an eastward movement of clouds and rain near the equator repeating every 30 to 60 days) and cold neutral El Niño conditions also favored good rainfall in August. Rain in September is likely to be normal or higher than normal, ”added Mohapatra.
A cold neutral El Niño phase indicates that the sea surface temperature is colder than normal in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Usually it is related to monsoon rains above normal in India.
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“This year, the good monsoon should have helped the farmers and the production must be very good. We do not have an assessment of how it will affect the economy, ”said M. Rajeevan, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Monsoon rain over the country is 8% in excess as of June 1 with 1% in excess over eastern and northeast India; 10% deficient in Northwest India; 16% in excess over central India and 21% in excess over the south of the peninsula.
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