New Delhi: Amid growing tensions between India and China after clashes in the Galvan Valley along the line of actual control (LAC), the visit of Indian Army General M.M. Naravane to Ladakh is of great importance.
In the event of a war between India and China, experts believe that the Indian army is likely to give a suitable answer to the Chinese troops. A report from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Howard Kennedy, published in March 2020, explained that Indian troops in the Himalayas could defeat the Chinese army, and this could prove that experts misjudged that India was lagging behind China in military power.
Comparison of the forces of China and India shows that China deployed a total of 200 00-230 000 ground troops under the command of the Western Theater Command, Tibet and Xinjiang. This apparent numerical near-equivalent strength of Indian regional ground forces is misleading. Experts say that a significant part of these forces will not be available, as they are reserved either for Russian tasks or to counter the rebellion in Xinjiang and Tibet.
Most of the forces are located farther from the Indian border, which is in stark contrast to most of the Indian forces deployed forward with China’s unified defensive mission.
The Indian army divides its ground and air strike forces facing China into the Northern, Central and Eastern Command. Air forces are organized into Western, Central and Eastern Air Command. The total number of available army strike forces in the border areas of China is estimated at approximately 225,000.
This includes approximately 3,000 men attached to the T-72 tank brigade stationed in Ladakh, and approximately 1,000 men attached to the BrahMos cruise missile regiment in Arunachal Pradesh. For the army, the general deployment near the border regions of China is divided into: about 34,000 soldiers in the Northern Command; 15,500 military personnel in the Central Command; and 175,500 soldiers in the Eastern Command
The published report, “The Strategic Position of China and India,” says that the command of the Western Air Force of the Chinese Air Force, PLAAF Air Force, which exercises operational control over fighters, near the border with India also suffers from a numerical mismatch of the IAF. In contrast to the tripartite organizational unit of the Chinese ground forces facing India, the Western Theater Command took control of all the regional attack aircraft. In total, this amounts to about 157 fighters and a diverse arsenal of drones.
The Indian Air Force has approximately 270 fighter jets and 68 attack aircraft in its three commands facing China. It is also expanding its network of Advanced Landing Stations (ALGs), which are small air bases at advanced points, to provide training grounds and logistics centers for aviation missions.
In the Western Air Command, the Air Force has about 75 fighters and 34 attack aircraft, except for 5 ALGs near Chinese Tibetan regions. The Central Air Command has about 94 fighters, 34 attack aircraft and one ALG. Eastern Air Command receives about 101 fighters and 9 ALG. The Eastern Air Command, which is deployed only to fight China, has only 101 fighters.
A comparison of the air forces of both countries shows that the Chinese J-10 fighter is technically comparable to the Indian Mirage-2000, while the Indian Su-30MKI surpasses all Chinese fighters, including the additional models J-11 and Su-27. In China, the theater houses about 101 4th-generation fighters, of which part should be preserved for the defense of Russia, while in India there are about 122 similar models designed exclusively for China.
China, however, is ahead of India in terms of aerial drones. He deployed more than 50 drones against India, which are capable of electronic surveillance from reconnaissance to ground attack.
The most significant forward PLA air bases and airfields near the Indian border areas, which will be crucial in hostilities, are located in Khotan, Lhasa / Gongar, Ngari Guns and Sigaz. Each of them hosts regular PLA units, and these are the closest targets to Indian targets in Kashmir, northern India and northeast India. They are vulnerable to a dedicated Indian offensive. Ngari Guns and Sigaze reportedly do not have hardened shelters or handles for exploding their aircraft, which are in the open. Lhasa / Gonggar has recently developed tempered shelters capable of protecting up to 36 aircraft, while “two aircraft shelters” of unknown capacity are reportedly located in Khotan.
According to the report, India’s early initiative to destroy or disable these four bases – and to achieve superiority in the air over them – will force China to rely more on planes from its bases at the rear, which will exacerbate its limited fuel and payload problems. In addition, China lacks the redundancy and survival of the respective forces compared to India in their comparative number of regional air bases.
The report concludes that India has a stronger regional air position with “a large number of airfields in the east and west, therefore, even if some airfields do not work, operations can continue from other places.”
To compensate for the shortage of forces in the event of war, China can send air and ground forces from the inside to the border. However, experts suggest that the superiority of the IAF will mean that critical logistics routes, such as air bases and military road and rail links, can be cut by bombing or missile strikes, which limits China’s ability to strengthen its position.
The report further added that 104 Chinese missiles could hit all or part of India. These include about a dozen DF-31A missiles and six to twelve DF-31 missiles, capable of hitting all mainland targets of India. A dozen more DF-21s are putting New Delhi at risk, and the remaining missiles could hit sections of the northeast and east coast of India. As China rolls out more and more mobile missiles over time, it will become easier to move further missiles from China’s interior to new surviving positions within India’s reach.
On the other hand, the bulk of India’s missile forces are closer to Pakistan than China. Ten Agni-III launchers can reach all of mainland China. Eight more Agni-II launchers could achieve the goals of central China. It is estimated that two Jaguar IS squadrons and one Mirage 2000H fighter squadron, for a total of about 51 aircraft, should be delivered to nuclear missions. These aircraft were likely to reach Tibetan airspace equipped with atomic gravity bombs.
India’s declared goal has always been to expose the likely potential of a second strike. This doctrine of guaranteed retaliation depends on the existence of sufficient doubts about the enemy’s calculus that the disarmament of the first strike will be successful, the report added.
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