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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the first part of the economic package that India has been waiting for since the end of March, when a blockade was imposed to combat the rapid spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. While some economic activity has resumed in the country, especially since May 3, the cost of the economy is high: the securities firm Nomura expects the Indian economy to contract 5.2% in the year through Dec. 31. March 2021, requiring a stimulus package. The prime minister announced about 20 lakh-crore on Tuesday, and a day later, the finance minister detailed the fine print of some of the measures.
More will follow. Some experts have pointed out that the package includes monetary measures that cannot really be called a stimulus, and that a credit guarantee does not mean the exit of the total guaranteed amount, but implies only the risk of a possible exit of the guaranteed portion. . Still, India finally has a stimulus plan; in terms of magnitude, it compares favorably with what many of the G20 countries have announced (except Japan, which has announced a package that represents almost a fifth of its economy); And directionally, this is one more step in India’s return to some sort of normality.
And that, the return to normality, not the package, is the focus of this column.
Since March 25, India has been closed. Some areas were blocked more harshly than others, but, at least until May 3, there was a blockade across the country. All establishments and offices, except those related to major government departments or providing essential services, were closed. People worked from home (or pretended to). Markets remained closed, except for stores that sell essential products. Many states instituted curfews; and most people stayed inside.
Since May 3, some offices in some states (and parts of some states) have started operating. Stores that sell nonessential products have been opened in some states. Like private offices (although they have been told that they can operate with, at most, a third of their workforce).
It is now becoming clear that as of May 17, the blockade could be further reduced. Over the past week, the refrain in government circles has changed from “flattening the curve” to “learning to live with the virus.” This is understandable. It is important for India to open up, but for sure. State governments are figuring out how best to open up. Many are said to consider traveling between districts, even across their borders, even when they plan to clearly define containment areas where infections are still raging, and continue to block them. This is a pragmatic approach, but it poses significant challenges.
In the absence of a cure or vaccine for coronavirus disease, wearing masks, social distancing, regular hand washing, and avoiding social and religious gatherings is the surest way to stay safe. However, even the partial removal of the closure restrictions has resulted in chaotic scenes in many parts of the country. Some states are already talking about tourism. Others speak of meetings and religious events.
Scientists around the world agree that removing a block will always mean an increase in the number of infections; Administrators know this too, but they think they can manage it if the increase stays below a certain threshold.
That’s where people come in.
As states emerge from the blockade, it will be difficult for their police departments to enforce basic health and distancing protocols. This must be done voluntarily by people. If they do not wear masks (or use them incorrectly), and if they do not follow the rules of social distancing, it could mean the return of a wave of infections. That is the risk India faces.
And it is a problem that only has one solution: a responsible citizenship that recognizes what is at stake.
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