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Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet with state chief ministers on Monday for the fifth time in 51 days.
There is exactly one week to May 17, a date that can be called either the end of the first phase of the gradual exit from the blockade of India or the extension of the second phase of the blockade, but with the reduction of some restrictions.
It is important to understand the context in which the meeting takes place.
The number of cases in India increased to 67,085 on Sunday night, the number of deaths to 2,140 and the number of recoveries to 20,901. Recoveries crossed 20,000 on Sunday, the kind of number that needs celebration. Worldwide, according to worldometers.info, 98% of the 2.4 million currently active cases are mild, and only 47,565 are “serious or critical.” Anecdotal evidence from India suggests that the situation here is no different.
States with a science-based approach to dealing with Covid-19, and with reasonably good public health systems, appear to be improving the disease: Kerala, with three deaths out of 505 cases, may be an outlier, but even Tamil Nadu, Where administrative disputes (the prime minister announced an unnecessary, yet closed-down, hard shutdown, forcing thousands of people to go outside, trying to stock up on essentials) resulted in an increase in cases, it has worked well. The state saw 6,535 cases as of Saturday, 526 of these were discovered on Saturday alone, but so far it has only recorded 44 deaths.
Maharashtra (22,171 cases; 832 deaths, as of Sunday), Gujarat (8,195 and 493) and Madhya Pradesh (3,614 and 215) are the outliers at the other extreme. Together, the three states account for 50.6% of all cases and almost 72% of all deaths. And Madhya Pradesh, for a state that has been badly hit by the virus, is definitely not testing enough (both Gujarat and Maharashtra are testing twice as many people per million as Madhya Pradesh).
In the week between May 3 and 10, the number of Covid-19 cases in India increased from 42,527 to 67,085, and the number of deaths from 1,393 to 2,140. The number of daily cases was more than 3,000 for four consecutive days since May 6 and exceeded 4,000 for the first time on Sunday. In the past five days (including Sunday), the number of daily deaths has exceeded 100 in all but two days. However, as this column has pointed out, most cases are from a few states. On Saturday, for example, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat accounted for two thirds of all new cases. On Sunday, this proportion was 69%. Vast parts of the country continue to have only a few cases of Covid-19; many are completely free of the disease (or have not registered any cases).
Clearly, the blockade has not helped India flatten the curve, although there is no doubt that the number of deaths and infections would have been higher without one.
At least quantitatively, if not qualitatively, India has used this period to strengthen its health care system and specifically prepare to address all aspects of Covid-19, from testing to treatment. For example, India is now on track to locally produce many RT-PCR tests, the best way to detect coronavirus disease.
Following the current trend of daily cases, it is also clear that the number of cases and deaths in India will continue to increase. And the collateral damage of the blockade in the economy, in industrial activity, in companies, large and small, and in workers of all shades, is significant.
The Prime Minister and chief ministers should discuss ways to restart more economic and other activities, including as they work to finalize restrictions and protocols for disease hotspots with a high concentration of cases and the most vulnerable population (older people 70 years).
India needs to learn to live with Covid-19 for now, but needs to find a way that protects both lives and livelihoods.
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