Delhi to peak in coronavirus cases in June-July, says head of Covid panel

A total of 77,234 people have been evaluated in the city so far. (Express photo of Nirmal Harindran)

The capital is likely to see a “spike” in coronavirus cases in June-July, said the doctor who heads the coronavirus response committee formed by the Chief Minister on Thursday, as Delhi recorded 448 new cases. This is the third consecutive day that Delhi has witnessed more than 400 cases.

Of the 5,980 cases in the capital, 1,431 have been reported since the beginning of this week. Sixty-six people have succumbed to the virus so far.

“The number is expected to remain between 400-500 cases per day for the next 10 days. This is the natural course of a virus. These are the patients who became infected 10 days ago and are now developing symptoms of the disease. The number of cases is also higher as Delhi has vastly increased testing facilities across the state. The peak season in Delhi is likely to come in June-July where we may see an increase in cases. The goal is to keep the death rate, which Delhi maintains so far, “said Dr. SK Sarin, who heads the Delhi government’s Covid response panel and is also the head of the Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences.

A total of 77,234 people have been evaluated in the city so far.

According to the evaluation of the capital’s health infrastructure committee, three scenarios had been planned: Stage 1, when the capital will begin reporting 100 cases in one day; Stage 2 with 500 cases a day; and Stage 3, where 1,000 or more cases will be reported in a single day. The capital appears to be poised to enter Stage 2, especially in the context of relaxations in the blockade.

According to the panel’s assessment, once Delhi begins recording 500 cases a day, the personal protective equipment requirement will skyrocket to 1,500-2,000 per day. The committee has noted that there should be 50 ventilated beds, 125 ICU facilities, and around 325 oxygen-supported beds.

“From now on, we are also prepared for Stage 2. If 500 cases are reported in one day, then 20% of them, that is 100 people, will need hospitalization. So if the trend continues for five consecutive days, 500 people will be hospitalized over a period of time. The estimates given by the committee to the government appear to be under control as of now, “Dr. Sarin said.

There are 11,000 beds in government hospitals and approximately 30,000 beds in private hospitals. “What is required now is that every patient who visits a hospital must wear a mask. It is time to also think about the safety of health workers, ”he said.

Currently, the government has converted two of its hospitals, Lok Nayak and Rajiv Gandhi Super Specialty, into centers designated by Covid. While Lok Nayak is creating a 2,000-bed capacity, Rajiv Gandhi Super Specialty has a 500-bed provision. The Delhi government recently authorized two more private hospitals to treat coronavirus patients: Sir Ganga Ram with 120 beds, and the Maha Durga Charitable Trust with 100 beds were added to the existing list of five Covid-designated facilities.

“We are improving the hospital and compartmentalizing cabins especially for Covid patients. The central air conditioner will close to stop air recirculation. The hospital will have separate entrances and exits and we are making supplies for ventilators, split AC, and other patient facilities, ”said Dr. J C Passey, medical director of Lok Nayak Hospital.

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