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A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has two important revelations about the impact of Covid-19 on energy demand.
He said that all fuels except renewable energy will register a decrease in demand in the coming decades. The agency also said that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year are slated for a record drop, six times higher than the drop seen after the 2008 financial crisis and double all previous reductions since World War II. World.
The record drop in CO2 emissions is not a good sign as it is a clear indicator of a massive economic shock and the drop may be temporary followed by more investments in dirty fuel, said experts who wrote the “Global Energy Review 2020” published on Thursday.
“As a result of premature deaths and economic trauma worldwide, the historical decline in global emissions is absolutely nothing to cheer about,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “And if the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis has anything to do with it, we are likely to see a sharp rebound in emissions soon as economic conditions improve. But governments can learn from that experience by putting clean energy … “, he added.
Daily data for this year through mid-April shows that countries with total blockade are experiencing an average decrease of 25 percent in energy demand per week and countries with partial blockade an average decrease of 18 percent. Global energy demand has already decreased by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020, and most of the impact was felt in March when blockades were applied in Europe, North America and others.
The report projects that energy demand will drop six percent in 2020, seven times the decline after the 2008 financial crisis. The IEA said: “The decline is unprecedented: the equivalent of losing all of India’s energy demand. , the third largest consumer of energy in the world. “
Depending on the duration of the restrictive measures, developed countries are expected to see the biggest drop in energy demand: 9 percent in the United States and 11 percent in the European Union.
The energy landscape has already changed because world demand for coal in the first quarter fell eight percent compared to last year. This was mainly due to China, a coal-based economy, which was the most affected in the first quarter. Oil demand fell five percent in the first quarter, mainly due to restrictions on transportation and aviation. But renewable energy recorded a growth in demand, driven by higher installed capacity in the first quarter.
The IEA said that renewable energies are given priority in the grid and are not asked to adjust their production according to demand, which isolates them from the impacts of lower energy demand. This resulted in renewables gaining a higher share of the energy mix with record hourly shares in Belgium, Italy, Germany, Hungary and the eastern United States. The IEA also stated that the demand for renewable energy this year and in the coming years will increase due to low operating costs.
As a result of these trends in falling demand for oil and coal, global energy-related CO2 emissions will drop nearly eight percent in 2020, a record drop. It will be six times greater than that recorded in 2009. “The coronavirus pandemic has triggered an unprecedented macroeconomic shock in peacetime … these restrictions (blockade) represent a challenging combination of supply and demand shock,” notes the report. concluded
The impact on energy demand in India remains to be seen. In the first quarter, energy demand in India increased by 0.3% compared to last year. As the closure continues, the impact on energy demand will be much greater in the second quarter.
Experts said that Covid-19 comes with an important opportunity. “The current pandemic has brought the world to its knees. While countries face a public health crisis in the short term, the world has an opportunity to show resilience in the way it addresses long-term climate change issues, “said Karan Mangotra, associate director for Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) He added: “We are all aware of the clear skies and the” very good “AQI numbers during the closing period. However, to maintain this, we would have to make sure that our recovery is green and sustainable so that we do not have a negative rebound. How do we ensure that the construction, aviation and automotive industries are equipped to make greener transitions? Can our recovery for some of the polluting sectors be conditioned to being green and sustainable? These are some of the important questions to think about to avoid missing this opportunity. ”
“In the short term, the drop in power generation from coal and gas has transported power systems several years into the future, with the participation of renewable energy setting new records. The longer-term impact depends on government policies, ”said Lauri Myllyvirta, principal analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Above all, this is an opportunity to shut down obsolete and polluting capacity, and accelerate the development of renewable energy as part of the economic recovery packages being prepared around the world. Renewable energy played an important role in job creation and economic recovery after the global financial crisis, and this may also be true for the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. In India, it is vital to align the rescue package for the electricity sector that is being prepared with the shift towards clean energy, closing old thermal plants that generate losses, improving the grid infrastructure and accelerating the development of renewable energy, “he added.
“The drop in carbon emissions is a side effect that doesn’t offset the damage, especially since a short-term drop in CO2 is not helpful when it comes to climate change. Only sustained changes in emissions are relevant here. In terms of a rebound, I expect almost all of these gains to be reversed. On the positive side, it is plausible that some of the technology we have started to use can standardize more environmentally friendly practices. For example, flying for meetings could be plausibly reduced, as videoconferencing has been shown to often work well, ”said Anant Sudarshan, Director of South Asia at the University of Chicago Institute for Energy Policy.
