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Historically, in hypercrises, local and global systems can fundamentally change. Before the coronavirus pandemic hit China first and then the rest of the world, the question of whether the US imperial era might be reeling was already on the table, amid the country’s endless wars and with the most whimsical leader of the world. When humanity emerges from this devastating crisis of disease, dislocation and impoverishment, not to mention the fracture of a global economic system created by Washington but increasingly driven by Beijing on a planet with climate stress, the question will be: Has the dragon pushed Chinese? Does the American eagle drop to a secondary position?
To objectively assess that question in this volatile moment, it is necessary to examine on a day-to-day basis how the two contemporary superpowers handled the COVID-19 crisis, and ask the question: Who has proven to be the best in the fight against the deadliest disease in the world? modern ones? times, President Donald Trump or President Xi Jinping? It’s a caveat to note that while China under Xi has suppressed the latest coronavirus at a human cost of three lives per million inhabitants, the United States under Trump is still struggling to dominate it, having already slaughtered 145 out of every million Americans.
In the aftermath of December 16, 2019, from Trump, who promoted a partial trade agreement with China (after a long trade war), a Sino-US exchange took place. George Gao, director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC), spoke to his American counterpart Robert Redfield on January 3, alerting him to the arrival of an as yet unidentified pneumonia-inducing virus. from Wuhan (news from which the Chinese government would retain for crucial days in the country). Redfield then informed the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, about that conversation.
Since then, the policy trajectories followed by Beijing and Washington have diverged 180 degrees. Mind you, the potential prize for the winner of the super virus killer contest is the World Leadership Trophy.
Attacked by a virulent virus, China defends itself
China’s National Health Commission (CNH), which dispatched a team of experts to Wuhan on December 31, informed the World Health Organization (WHO) that cases of pneumonia of an unknown type had been detected in that city, related to human exposure at the 1,000-stall Wholesale Seafood Market, which sells fish and other animals, dead and alive. With that, Chinese scientists faced two separate challenges: isolating the disease-causing pathogen to establish its genome sequencing and determining whether or not there was human-to-human transmission of the virus.
On January 3, NHC centralized all tests related to the mysterious disease, and two days later, along with experts in infectious diseases caused by pathogens leaping from animals to humans, completed the virus genome sequence. It became accessible worldwide on January 7. And on January 10 and 11, the WHO issued guidance notices to all its member states about collecting samples from any patient who might show symptoms of the disease, listing strict precautions to avoid the risk of human-to-human transmission.
On January 14, Maria Van Kerkhove, acting director of the WHO emerging diseases unit, delivered a mixed message on the situation. She told reporters that, until now, there have only been the most limited types of human transmission among family members in China. However, he added, the possibility of broader person-to-person transmission should not be considered “surprising” given the similarity of the new virus to earlier SARS (MDS) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). ) outbreaks. However, Reuters and China’s Xinhua News Agency also quoted her as saying that so far there has only been more limited human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus, mainly among small groups of family members, and that “it is very clear from this moment we don’t have sustained transmission from person to person. “
On January 16, scientists at the German Infection Research Center in Berlin developed a new laboratory test to detect the new coronavirus. This offered the possibility to diagnose suspicious cases quickly. The WHO advertised it as a guide to diagnostic screening. The leaders of many countries adopted it, but not President Trump, who, in America First-style, demanded a test produced by American scientists. However, only on February 29, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will allow laboratories and hospitals to run their own COVID-19 tests to speed up the process. That was four weeks after WHO began distributing its effective test worldwide.
On January 19, the Chinese National Health Commission confirmed human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus. That day, he publicly confirmed the first cases of person-to-person transmission. Headed by a cabinet minister, NHC classified the new coronavirus as a category B infectious disease under the country’s Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Act 1989 (revised in 2004 and 2013). This law allows the promotion of an infectious disease to category A subject to the decision of the cabinet. According to that classification, medical institutions are authorized to treat patients in isolation at designated locations and to take the necessary preventive measures to discover and deal with their close contacts.
On January 20, after chairing a cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Li Keqiang spoke for the first time of the need to control a coronavirus epidemic, demanding that all Communist Party and government units address the situation. In supporting Li’s call, President Xi Jinping emphasized “the importance of informing the public to safeguard social stability.” As a high-level Communist Party committee used to say in a WeChat post, “Anyone who deliberately delays or conceals reporting for the sake of their own interests will forever be nailed to the pillar of history’s shame.”
All of this happened on the eve of the Chinese New Year weekend holiday, a time when hundreds of millions of people return home to celebrate. On January 22, three days before the New Year, the authorities suspended all Wuhan rail and air links.
The following day, the central government imposed a total blockade on that bustling city of 11 million and other large urban centers in Hubei province. Residents were prohibited from leaving their homes, while neighborhood committees would deliver food and other supplies. This set a precedent for similar measures in other cities, as in the coming weeks many areas in China imposed such “closed management” situations on communities. Up to 760 million people were subjected to travel restrictions of one kind or another, while the economy was reduced to 40% -50% of its normal capacity.
During a meeting with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in Beijing on January 29, President Xi assured him that he had personally supervised and directed the response to the viral outbreak and the accompanying prevention and control measures. On January 30, when the new coronavirus spread to 17 countries, including the United States, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak to be a “global health emergency.” On February 11, she labeled the disease caused by the latest coronavirus, which can culminate in death-inducing pneumonia, COVID-19.
Meanwhile, in Trumpland …
On January 29, President Trump officially launched a task force led by Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar to monitor, contain and mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, while keeping Americans informed on the matter.
Random and Robert Redfield of the Centers for Disease Control Prevention had already been involved in protecting Americans from the deadly virus. On January 7, Redfield had established the CDC’s COVID-19 Incident Management System and, on January 21, activated its emergency response structure. That same day, the first laboratory-confirmed case of coronavirus was reported in Olympia, Washington. (The previous ones would be detected later). The president noted the news with a tweet: “She is a person who comes from China and we have her under control. She will be fine.”
Inside the White House, Trump’s national trade adviser, Peter Navarro, addressed a warning memorandum to the National Security Council stating that the current “lack of protection increases the risk that the coronavirus will become a full-blown pandemic, putting the lives of millions of Americans at risk. “He estimated that such a pandemic could kill half a million people and have a $ 5.7 trillion impact on the economy.
Two days later, in response to these events, all Trump did was to ban the arrival of non-US citizens who had recently traveled to China. Thereafter, he repeatedly touted this as evidence that he had acted early. Azar’s plan to establish surveillance in five cities at the cost of $ 100 million failed when, on February 21, Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters that the problems with the kits to detect COVID-19 they were still unsolved.
In the absence of significant evidence, the number of cases in the US USA It seemed small. “The coronavirus is very controlled in the United States,” Trump tweeted on 24. “CDC and World Health [Organization] I have been working hard and very smart. The Stock Market is starting to look great to me! He ignored Navarro’s memorandum the day before and his warning that “there is an increasing likelihood of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic that could infect up to 100 million Americans, with loss of life of up to 1-2 million.” . souls. “
Instead, on February 25, at a press conference in New Delhi during his trip to India, the president arrogantly stated that a vaccine for COVID-19 would soon be available. “Now they have it, they have studied it, they know a lot, in fact, we are very close to a vaccine,” he said confidently.
That same day, at a CDC briefing in Washington, Nancy Messonnier described the situation this way: “Ultimately, we hope to see [the infected] extended community in this country … [and] Disruption of daily life can be serious. But these are things that people need to start thinking about now. ” That led to a staggering 1,031-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, infuriating Trump. He immediately urged Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, to go to television and preach confidence. Consequently, Kudlow told CNBC: “We have contained this. I won’t say airtight, but it’s pretty watertight. “
Upon his return to Washington on February 26, Trump replaced Azar as head of the coronavirus workforce with Vice President Mike Pence, accusing him of spreading positive messages to stabilize a nervous stock market. The next day, the complaining president complained that the media was doing everything possible to “create the Caronavirus.” [sic] look as bad as possible, including panicked markets if possible. “
Meanwhile back in the middle realm
On February 10, Chinese President Xi visited a hospital in Beijing where he made a video call with health workers in Wuhan. The coverage and temperature a doctor was taking filled the front page of the official newspaper, the People’s diary. By then, the Communist Party chiefs in Wuhan and Hubei province had been “replaced” due to their poor initial response to the coronavirus.
In Wuhan, an additional 60,000 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients were created in a month by converting 16 exhibition halls and sports stadiums into field hospitals and also by building two new hospitals. On February 23, Xi held a conference call with 170,000 local officials, describing the pandemic as the most difficult public health emergency to contain since the founding of the People’s Republic. He noted that the situation remained bleak and complex, while Hubei province and significant parts of the rest of the country (as well as the economy) had been closed.
The highest priority was given to the production of personal protective equipment. According to an official press conference on March 6, the production of protective clothing had increased from less than 20,000 pieces per day to 500,000 pieces per day. Production of N95 specialized masks multiplied by eight to 1.6 million and ordinary masks totaled 100 million.
During a trip to Wuhan four days later, Xi praised the frontline medical workers, military officers, soldiers, community workers, police officers, officials and volunteers fighting the pandemic, as well as patients and residents of the closed city. . The epidemic had already caused 3,000 deaths. However, on March 9, the new daily cases in Wuhan had already dropped to 19 thousand a day earlier. All makeshift hospitals were closed. However, Xi cautioned that prevention and control work requires constant vigilance.
When 114 countries reported coronavirus cases to the World Health Organization on March 11, they declared the COVID-19 outbreak to be a global pandemic.
In mid-March, the Chinese government and the Jack Ma Foundation, part of the giant corporate conglomerate Alibaba Group, had shipped doctors and medical supplies to Belgium, Cambodia, France, Iran, Iraq, Italy, the Philippines, Serbia, Spain, and the United States. . The foundation announced that it would send “20,000 test kits, 100,000 masks and 1,000 face suits and face shields” to all countries in Africa, adding that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed “would take the lead in logistics management and distribution of these supplies to other African countries. “
Of the 89 countries that had received emergency assistance from China to combat the pandemic before March 26, 28 were in Asia, 16 in Europe, 26 in Africa, nine in the Americas and 10 in the South Pacific. These medical supplies mainly included test kits, masks, protective suits, thermometer guns, and ventilators. China also invited officials and experts from more than 100 countries to a video conference on COVID-19, while President Xi conducted 26 telephone conversations with 22 foreign leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, Spanish King Felipe VI, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, and Donald Trump.
Trump wakes up
On March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency and promised to dramatically accelerate testing for coronavirus (which he failed to do disastrously). By then, he had attributed a remarkable series of false claims and outright lies about the rapidly spreading disease. Typically, on a visit to CDC headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, on March 6, he had boasted of his “natural ability” to understand the subject of epidemiology.
On March 13, he falsely announced that a Google website was being developed to help people find places to test for COVID-19, something Google officials turned out to know nothing about. The next day, he lined up executives at Walmart, Target, CVS, Walgreens, LabCorp, Quest Diagnostics and Roche Diagnostics, insisting they would help speed up tests to stop the rapidly spreading virus. In fact, little happened and the nation began to close. Public schools closed, sports leagues postponed or cut their seasons, people started working from home in large numbers (as millions of people simply lost their jobs), and supplies of hand sanitizer, sanitizing wipes, and toilet paper they disappeared from store shelves. A month later, very few of the president’s promises had materialized, while the disease had dramatically spread and deaths had begun to skyrocket.
When asked about the shortage of kits and test sites, which has left the United States far behind South Korea and other countries in dealing with the virus that is still spreading, Trump could not have been more clear. “I am not responsible at all,” he said. And yet, locked in his “Make America Great Again” bubble, until March 6 he blocked an offer from the Jack Ma Foundation to send 500,000 test kits and a million masks to the United States for distribution by the CDC. .
By paying attention to the WHO’s “test, test, test” battle cry, South Korea managed to avoid the types of blockades implemented by China, many Western European countries, and some American cities. In a desperate phone call to President Moon Jae-in on March 24, Trump pleaded with him to quickly bring the test kits to the United States. In response, Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the South Korean equivalent of the CDC, agreed, but only at a level that would not diminish the testing capacity of his own country.
Shortly after the arrival of 1,000 Chinese fans at John F. Kennedy International Airport on April 4, to the relief of Governor Andrew Cuomo, a tweet from Trump read: “STRONG USA!” However, their boasting sounded hollow, given the grim news that, between February 12 and March 11, the Dow Jones Index had fallen about 8,000 points from its all-time peak, as national unemployment tripled from a 3.5% minimum (with more to come)
To counter this, on April 9, the Federal Reserve launched $ 2.3 trillion in commercial loans and other programs to stabilize a rapidly sinking economy. It had already injected $ 500 billion into the financial system in March, with plans for another $ 1.5 trillion to come.
By March 27, when the US USA Obtaining global number one status in coronavirus cases, the president also enacted the $ 2.2 trillion Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Appropriations Act, passed almost unanimously by Congress, to obtain federal assistance for workers and businesses. It included paying $ 1,200 to most taxpayers; higher unemployment benefits; a $ 500 billion loan program for large companies, cities, and states; and a $ 367 billion small business fund.
Despite all this, the country’s gross domestic product is expected to drop at least 10.8% in the second quarter of 2020. China’s 6.8% contraction in GDP in the first quarter of the year was a drop. historical. However, at 5.9%, the unemployment rate in urban areas in March 2020 decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous month.
Passing the world leadership trophy?
The question that many geopolitical experts are now asking is this: Has the balance of power between China and the US changed their responses to COVID-19? USA In a way that will matter in a post-coronavirus world? Seeing the chaos of Trump’s daily press conferences and his administration’s failure to stop the virus effectively turned out to be an alarming reminder that rational people can plan anything except an irrational American president. After all, under his supervision, 746,459 Americans had contracted COVID-19 and 39,651 had died in mid-April. Comparable figures for China were 82,747 cases and 4,632 deaths.
Nathalie Tocci, advisor to the head of foreign affairs for the European Union, recently offered a pertinent historical parallel to consider. He cited the Suez crisis of 1956: the failed, albeit conspiratorial, alliance of Britain with France and Israel to militarily overthrow the nationalist regime of Egypt’s President Gamal Abdul Nasser. Now is the time for sunset for Britain’s imperial power. In the current context, he speculated that the COVID-19 pandemic could be a “Suez moment” for the United States.
Ignoring the warnings of scientists and public health experts, President Trump threatens to disastrously extend his chronology of the coronavirus from hell to an increasingly painful future by “reopening” the country too soon. Doing so will only accelerate the day the World Leadership Trophy, held by the United States since 1946, is awarded to the People’s Republic of China.
Dilip Hiro he is the author of After the empire: the birth of a multipolar world among many other books. His latest book is Cold War in the Islamic world: Saudi Arabia, Iran and the fight for supremacy (Oxford University Press) This piece first appeared on TomDispatch and is republished with the permission of the author.
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