The betting market odds in the US presidential election have started to tighten once again after switching in favor of Republican President Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, according to data from three aggregators.
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Britain-based exchange Smarkets gives Trump a 55% chance of winning, up from 39% when the polls opened. Trump’s odds had risen to 80% at one point.
Biden’s odds of winning at Smarkets have dropped to 45% from 61% previously.
The change “has been driven primarily by Trump who apparently occupies the key state of Florida as a result of a very strong performance for him in Miami-Dade County with a large Cuban population,” said Patrick Flynn, a political analyst at Smarkets.
Flynn said Election Day and early votes were very divided and that “the outcome of this election will come down to the types of votes that remain to be counted in some of the key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona.”
Bettors at the British betting exchange Betfair were giving Trump a 75% chance of winning a second term in the White House at 2200 EDT (0300 GMT), up from 39% when the polls opened Tuesday for the morning. The odds of Biden winning on Betfair have dropped to 25% from 61% previously.
“Trump has significantly outperformed Biden and is now in pole position, which suggests it could be a very nervous night for Biden,” Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom said.
Meanwhile, New Zealand-based prediction market PredictIt had Trump leading Biden by 62 cents to 37 cents, from 61 cents to 44 cents in favor of the Democratic nominee on November 2.
The PredictIt website was hit by an outage before. He posted on Twitter that he was working to “get service back as soon as possible,” without saying exactly why it had gone down.
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