NEW DELHI: As Democratic challenger Joe Biden approaches the White House, both he and Donald Trump have garnered record votes and Trump’s unexpectedly strong performance at a time when it was widely anticipated that he would be demolished will likely have his shadow in the Biden. administration and the decisions it makes with respect to adversaries and allies.
“Regardless of who wins the White House, Trumpism is here to stay: deregulation at home to unleash economic dynamism, low corporate taxes and not useless wars against Middle East / Afghanistan fanatics, to focus instead on containing China with allies from AUS, India, Japan and Vn. ” eminent historian Edward Luttwak tweeted, summing up a deeply held assessment.
Despite Democratic-Trump bad blood, India is more confident in its own relations with the United States. On Friday, the MEA spokesman reiterated: “India-US relations rest on solid foundations, encompassing cooperation in all possible spheres. A comprehensive global strategic partnership has very strong bipartisan support in the US. ”
China cannot say that. Trump has taken a wrecking ball with that relationship and Biden will find it difficult to put it together or make deals with Beijing. This week alone, reports say that the United States has eliminated the Uighur terror group, ETIM, as a terrorist organization, increasing China’s fury.
Biden’s best bet for a bold new start would have been a defeated Trump and a strong Congress of Democrats. Republicans are likely to maintain their Senate majority as of Friday, particularly after Susan Collins defeated Democrat Sara Gideon in Maine. In the House of Representatives, Democrats haven’t changed more than two seats, and they haven’t removed any incumbent Republicans or won any new seats.
Therefore, the victory of The Squad (Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, Alexandra Ocasio Cortez and Ayanna Pressley) however, Democrats will have to work much harder in the House.
If the Senate retains a Republican majority, that will make Mitch McConnell a very powerful political leader, a man responsible for pushing many of Trump’s policies over the past four years, including the most recent Supreme Court appointment.
Biden, who has had a long relationship with McConnell, will have to work even more closely with the Republican leadership in the Senate, particularly to get his cabinet appointments approved. Kamala harrisLike Veep, he will have to work hard as he is expected to work in the Capitol corridors to clear the way for Biden’s legislative agenda.
Trump’s voter is going nowhere: non-college whites, a portion of the Latino-Hispanic population, white men (women seem to have left Trump holistically). This could mean that Biden might have to moderate his promises on issues like immigration, which could affect the H-1B visa and other qualified and unqualified visas from countries like India.
America moves on Huawei, which has been replicated by European countries, Australia and Japan, is likely to stay. That can make things difficult for Silicon Valley and Big Tech, which count Harris as one of their own. For many American companies that prefer to relax a bit in US-China ties, it could be a tough road.
On the other hand, China, certainly under Xi JinpingHe would feel no reason to cut deals with Biden, particularly if Beijing believes he is on the cusp of superpower dominance. China may not be willing to give quarter either.
But if Biden is seen to be very keen on a climate deal, he may have to be more conciliatory on the China front. That could have implications for US allies, who have hardened their stance on China, particularly in the past two years; A good example would be Australia, which is suffering extraordinary levels of economic pain from China today.
Biden is not about to return to the Middle East, from where Trump has withdrawn the United States or even Afghanistan. As Obama’s vice president, Biden was the original proponent of a lighter American footprint, confined to counterterrorism missions. That may be the extent to which it would go. Trump sewed up the Abraham Accords in recent months with the general idea of not just making Israel more palatable to the Arab world, but leaving them to themselves to handle the regional threat from Iran. Biden wouldn’t want to go back there.
Then Biden will inherit a less involved America. He will be under pressure from his advisers to make America a world leader again. The terms of that commitment can be very different.
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