Shankar raghuraman from TOI makes the numerical calculation to arrive at the possibilities of the seven teams as of today (October 29, 2020).
1. The Mumbai Indians are now certain to finish, at worst, tied for second with 16 points
2. There is a 50% chance that Mumbai will get a clear first place and an 80% chance that they will at least share the first place in points (208 out of 256 possible results)
3. Royal Challengers Bangalore, I like Capitals of Delhi, may not make the playoffs yet, but the chances of them not scoring at least fourth overall in points are negligible (4 out of 256 possible outcomes)
4. RCB and Delhi can, in the worst case, finish fifth or tie for fifth place in points.
5. Delhi still has a one in eight chance of finishing in first place and a one in three chance of at least sharing the top spot in points.
6. Bangalore has only a one in 16 chance of finishing for first place, but a one in three chance of at least tying for first place.
7. Kolkata Knight Riders have only a 1 in 16 chance of making the playoffs without net run rates coming into play, but their chances of tying for 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th place in points are more than two out of every three
8. Sunrisers Hyderabad has no chance of making the playoffs, without net run rates entering the equation, but they have a better than one in five chance of tying for third or fourth place.
9. Kings XI’s chances of making the playoffs without NRR entering the scene are less than one in 16, but his chances of tying for one of the top four are better than two-thirds.
10. The Rajasthan Royals have less than a 3% chance of qualifying without NRR coming into play, but about a one in four chance of tying for at least third or fourth place.
11. The chances of the first four spaces being decided without NRR entering the scene are almost nonexistent. The only combination of match results with which that is possible is for MI, RCB and KKR to win the remaining two matches and Chennai and Rajasthan to defeat Kings XI. If that happens, Mumbai finishes on top, RCB second, Kolkata third and Delhi fourth.
The 2020 IPL season has been very competitive. Kings XI Punjab’s five consecutive victories have made things even more intriguing. Although the three teams that parted ways this season have been Mumbai Indians, Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bangalore, the other four teams (KXIP, KKR, SRH and RR) are still technically in the running for play-off spots. Those who have games remaining against the ‘big 3’ this season will hope to win. Mumbai and Bangalore lost over the past weekend and Delhi was thrashed by Hyderabad on Tuesday, before Mumbai beat Bangalore on Wednesday in the two heavyweight clash. With seven teams in the running for the four play-off spots and three teams (Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore) most likely to seal a spot, the fight for the remaining fourth place (for which KXIP and KKR are the main contenders from now on) could make the remaining eight IPL 2020 league matches very interesting. Expect teams to dump everything, including the kitchen sink to try and clinch a play-off spot in upcoming games.
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