India became the second country in the world on Friday to see the total number of Covid-19 infections exceed 10 million, although this comes at a time when the country is in the best position in months in its fight against the pandemic, and with the launch of an imminent vaccine.
The only other country that has crossed this mark is the United States, which did so on November 7, and is currently in the grip of a strong third wave of the pandemic that has led to daily cases and deaths, as well as hospitalizations. at record levels. . The United States has seen 17,661,064 cases and 318,522 deaths to date.
On the contrary, almost all indicators for India show positive signs: the rate of new cases and deaths is the lowest in at least five months and has fallen by more than 70% since the peak of the first wave, and the rate of positivity is the lowest ever recorded. .
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India ended on Friday with 10,004,807 cases, 145,188 deaths and a cumulative positivity rate of 6.3%.
The global battle against the disease has received a major boost in the past two weeks, as two countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, have begun the launch of the first Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer-BioNTech. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Thursday that it is working “rapidly” to grant emergency use authorization to a second candidate vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. Approval was expected later on Friday. U.S.
In India, Pfizer is among three companies that have applied for early approval for a coronavirus vaccine. The country’s drug regulator is evaluating these apps and has asked the other two: Serum Institute of India (which submitted the Oxford-AstraZeneca nomination) and Bharat Biotech to submit more data. Pfizer is scheduled to make a presentation to the agency soon, after which its evaluation will proceed.
The viral disease that began in Wuhan, China, a year and a little ago, has infected at least 75 million people worldwide and killed 1.7 million people, although experts say both figures are likely to be understatements.
One in eight people infected with the Sars-CoV-2 virus, which causes Covid-19, is from India, but the country is doing better in terms of deaths. Its fatality rate (CFR), the proportion of infected people who have died from the disease, is 1.45%, which is not only better than the world average of 2.22%, but also better than others. countries like the USA (1.8%) and Brazil (2.60%) that have been seriously affected by the disease.
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India’s first wave of infections peaked in mid-September with an average of seven days of daily cases reaching 93,617. This number has been decreasing at a rapid rate since then, and in the last week it has touched 26,851, a decrease of more than 71%.
This improvement in the case rate has been accompanied by an improvement in another crucial metric: the positivity rate, which is at its lowest level. Last week, 2.6% of all samples tested in India tested positive for Covid-19, the lowest number this number has reached since the government began releasing test numbers in April. According to the World Health Organization, if the positivity rate remains at 5% or less for two weeks, it can be said that a region is keeping its outbreak under control and testing appropriately. India’s positivity rate has been below this threshold for 25 days.
This improvement is reflected in all major hot spot states. As recently as October and November, states such as Delhi, Kerala, West Bengal and Rajasthan continued to defy the general trend and report increasing cases. But for the first time, the numbers are declining in the past three weeks in every major state in the country. In states like Maharashtra, which is responsible for the highest number of infections so far (1,888,767 as of Friday), new infections are down 83% from mid-September levels. Similarly, new infections are down 88% from highs in Karnataka, 95% in Andhra Pradesh, 82% in Tamil Nadu and 73% in Delhi.
Experts said they don’t expect another massive wave of infections like the country did in September.
“The downward trend in cases came just after the holiday season and Bihar elections, both factors that many of us predicted would lead to another peak, but that never happened,” said Dr. Shahid Jameel, virologist and director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University. “Part of the reason is that although officially 10 million people have been infected, this number is at least 15 to 20 times more if we look at the results of serosurveys. This, and the fact that millions of people will receive the vaccine in the near future, should prevent us from another wave. “
THREAT OF A SECOND WAVE
However, trends in Europe and the United States have shown that subsequent waves are significantly more severe than the first attack of the disease. Countries like the US, France and the UK have experienced a devastatingly strong second (third) wave.
In the United States, the seven-day average of new cases in the first wave peaked at 32,809 new cases per day. In the second wave, it was 70,511, a 115% increase over the first wave. And the number is currently 220,690, another 213% increase. The trend is equally clear in other nations. In Britain, the second wave was 407% more severe than the first wave: the first wave peaked with a seven-day average of cases at 4,999 while the second wave touched 25,331. In France, the second wave exceeded the severity of the first wave by 1,172%: the first wave touched 4,433, while the second wave reached a maximum of 56,377 new infections per day.
“This virus will stay with us for at least a couple of years. Over the next year or two we will see localized outbreaks in the cases, but it will be nothing of the magnitude of the first wave … The vaccine is really necessary because it will help keep these sources of infection under control, ”said Dr. Jameel.
Other experts warned that measures such as masks will remain the key defense against the spread of the disease. “A vaccination campaign, anywhere in the world (and much longer in India), will take several months to reach the big numbers that would make a big difference in transmission rates. Therefore, the short-term future of infection spread patterns will continue to depend on the use of standard physical distancing steps, such as masks, ”said Dr Satyajit Rath, immunologist and visiting professor at the Indian Institute of Education and Research. Scientific, Pune.
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