Senator Joni Ernst had to walk a fine line on Wednesday with her speech from the Republican National Convention. While she probably relies on the support of President Donald Trump to turn out the Republican base in her bid for re-election in November, she also runs the risk of appearing too close to him – and losing unsatisfied Iowans with his leadership.
In her remarks, however, Ernst made it clear that she fully endorses the president in the hope that his election luck will encourage her as well.
“People, this election is a choice between two very different paths,” Ernst emphasized in her speech. “Freedom, prosperity and economic growth under a Trump-Pence administration. Or the Biden-Harris path, paved by liberal coastal elites and radical environmental activists. ”
Ernst’s statement sought to highlight the areas where Trump has apparently supported Iowan farmers during the pandemic, the resulting recession, and a recent, damaging derecho storm, and listed him as the less limited choice of the two. presidential candidates. The remarks also follow in the GOP’s tradition of fear over Democrats’ environmental proposals, while highlighting the significant economic damage that Trump’s policies have caused.
It is unclear how this decision will play out this fall; Ernst is one of several vulnerable Republicans who have a whole Senate contest. Cook’s political report rates Iowa’s seat as one of six that will run for Republicans in November.
Like several of her colleagues in states including Arizona, North Carolina, and Colorado, Ernst will need strong Republican support to stay a shot in the Senate – meaning she commits herself to some extent to Trump. At the same time, Iowans is increasingly voting for his leadership, which could backfire on Ernst if she associates herself too closely with his presidency.
This pattern can be seen in a Morning Consult tracker: In January 2017, 40 percent of Iowans “rejected” Trump, and by February 2020, that figure had grown to 51 percent. (His rating for approval has remained more stable over the same time frame, declining slightly from 49 percent to 46 percent.) More recent polls have also placed the president’s disapproval ratings in the state at about 50 percent.
A rally in disgust at the president in her home states is a dynamic that several other GOP lawmakers have faced as well, so much so that some have chosen to distance themselves broadly from Trump. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), for example, has refused to say whether she will vote for Trump for president. Perhaps because of this tension, Ernst has been the only Republican senator from the swing seat who gave a headline at the convention this week.
In her speech Wednesday, she seemed to weigh the potential gains from this move that outweigh the risk.
Ernst’s comments praised Trump’s work for farmers – while ignoring harm
Ernst’s speech detailed how Trump’s policies, including a trade agreement with Japan and support for E-15 fuel sales year-round, benefited Iowa farmers, while ignoring how policies such as his trade war with China have hurt them, and the price of crops and livestock. The trade war has led to substantial loss of profits, the need for bailouts, and, in some cases, bankruptcies.
In an NPR report this February, an Iowan farmer talked about how an exemption from Environmental Protection Agency exemptions that required oil refineries to mix ethanol in gasoline eased demand for corn – further hurting already congested soil lines. The stream of these exemptions has meanwhile been challenged in court, and the number in use is now expected to go down. However, some damage had already been done.
“When we were already out of business, the least the administration could have done was to support us there and give us something that will go on year after year, you know,” Rob Ewoldt told NPR.
As Bridget Bowman writes of Roll Call, Ernst’s speech was a direct appeal to rural voters – a core group that could help Trump win re-election. In 2016, 62 percent of rural voters supported the Republican candidate against 50 percent of suburban voters, according to data from the New York Times exit.
Despite all the problems, the Trump administration’s trade war and domestic policies have caused rural voters, both Ernst and Trump, it seems, to once again tap into this support.
New target: 25,000
In the spring, we launched a program that asks readers for financial contributions to keep Vox free for everyone, and last week we set a goal to reach 20,000 contributions. Well, you helped us blow that over. Today, we are expanding that goal to 25,000. Millions turn to Vox every month to understand an ever-chaotic world – from what’s happening to the USPS to the coronavirus crisis to what is, quite possibly, the most consistent presidential election of our lives. Even as the economy and the advertising advertising market recover, your support will be a critical part of maintaining our resource-intensive work – and helping everyone make sense of an ever-chaotic world. Earn today from just $ 3.
