Experts say that while it is difficult to determine exactly what gave New York an edge over COVID-19’s superiority, a combination of comprehensive testing, cautionary and region-based, combined with growing compliance with business safety guidelines to make an impressive turnaround.
Some of these are a product of contrasting leadership styles of two governors – the very aggressive, in-your-face approach taken by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, compared to the more liberal and cautious approach of Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, said experts. While the calm tenor of Baker was praised during the more dire days of the pandemic, some experts said re-opening leads may require a heavier hand.
“Similar to other states, [Massachusetts and New York] do both pretty well, ”said Jennifer Nuzzo, an Johns Hopkins epidemiologist. But, she said, New York still stands in its own league. ‘It’s not so much the absolute difference [in metrics], it is also the trend. What is encouraging about New York is that its trends have held up for a long time. ”
Johns Hopkins University’s coronavirus tracker reports that Massachusetts counted 10,189 new COVID-19 cases last month compared to 20,265 from New York. If the population of the states is recorded, that means that Massachusetts has seen nearly 1.4 times the number of new cases per capita.
The number of cases per capita in New York is lower, although that state tests more extensively than Massachusetts – nearly twice as many tests per capita in the week of August 5 through August 11.
The average rate of Massachusetts COVID-19 tests that return positive also appears to show higher infection rates than in New York. Johns Hopkins puts that figure at 2.1 percent for Massachusetts over the past seven days versus 0.9 percent for New York, though Nuzzo notes that comparison across states can be tricky because they report data differently. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health reported a lower figure, 1.4 percent, on Friday.
Although both states are in the final stages of their four-phase reorganization plans, New York has continued through its phases on a regional basis, with Governor Andrew Cuomo moving each of the 10 regions forward based on localized health metrics and risk factors.
This has resulted in a more sophisticated approach to the largest, closest and highest transferable region of the state. New York City did not begin reopening until June 8, three weeks after some regions in New York took their first steps to end their lockdowns and after some had already advanced to the second phase of Cuomo’s plan.
By comparison, Boston has largely kept pace with the rest of Massachusetts, though the city has kept an extra week of keeping some aspects open again.
Experts also pointed to one significant difference in the two reopening plans: New York City still does not allow dining in, while Boston chose to allow food within June 22, when Massachusetts gave the green light for eateries statewide.
Indoor dining has been linked to 10 percent of new infections in other states, said Shan Soe-Lin, executive director of Pharos Global Health Advisors, a nonprofit from Boston that focuses on global health issues. Disease experts in the state have also pointed to dinner inside as an area of concern, with some asking to reopen it.
New York has been particularly difficult for companies that do not adhere to social distancing guidelines. On July 23, Cuomo announced a task force led by state police and liquor authorities to help local officials monitor damage from coronavirus-related regulations. More than 700 establishments have received citations, and penalties can range from fines of $ 10,000 per violation to suspension of liquor licenses and temporary closure.
Baker announced a similar statewide task force on Aug. 7, along with new restaurant safety guidelines, so it’s too early to tell how it will affect the spread of the virus. However, most enforcement of pandemic rules in Massachusetts has been left to local health authorities.
Baker’s administration has adopted stricter travel restrictions than Cuomo’s; travel to Rhode Island, for example, is currently restricted under Massachusetts rules, but not from New York.
Sarah Finlaw, a spokeswoman for the Massachusetts COVID-19 Command Center, said the Baker administration “has also launched a first-in-the-nation contact tracing effort, and continues to report comprehensive public health data, including community-level data. unveiled … to control cases in cities and towns so that the administration can work with local officials to enforce reopening guidelines to slow the spread. “
But Robert Hecht, an epidemiology professor at Yale University’s School of Public Health, said Cuomo’s leadership style shows ‘teeth and passion and is not afraid to step on the toes in the business community’ can be more effective.
“I wish states had the time, bandwidth and incentives to learn more from each other, ”said Hecht. “Understanding New York’s tougher enforcement and its benefits should be critical information for us in Massachusetts.”
But experts warned that the incursion has a cost. Strict regulation can target the same communities of color who are already disproportionately affected by the disease, said Allie Bohm, policy adviser to the New York Civil Liberties Union.
“Typically in New York, and I think across the country, it has often been harder to enforce in communities of color,” Bohm said. “If you use discretion of legislation to enforce public health issues and you have scarce resources, you will end up with enforcement that reflects the prevailing bias in society.”
In May, New York police came under fire after reports found that 91 percent of people arrested for crimes related to coronavirus were black as Hispanic.
Although the task force accused of inspecting restaurants and bars has not received the same criticism, some parts of New York City have seen more enforcement than others.
Even if applied honestly, strict enforcement can hamper the progress of public health, Bohm said, because people may fear that collaborating in crucial efforts, including contact tracing, could lead to punishment or job loss for themselves as their neighbors.
“Enforcement can be an important tool, but you can also imagine some scenarios in which enforcement can backfire,” Nuzzo added.
She explained that public health officials should be careful about accidentally driving people to socialize in private, hard-to-manage spaces if they act too quickly to close such locations as restaurants and bars.
One method for gentle enforcement by multiple experts said New York can help keep safety measures in place and keep its COVID-19 transmission low: New Yorkers’ shared memory of a traumatic spring.
“One thing that makes New York at least different from any other state at this point is just how hard it was,” Nuzzo said.
She said the pandemic was “inevitable,” especially in New York City, where unrestricted sirens, daily tributes to health care workers, and hospitals and crematoria sent shock waves across weeks.
‘New York City, on the whole, was rumbling harder than we did in Boston. The hospitals here were not exaggerated, “said Soe-Lin. “That’s a good thing, but it’s hard when people have to remember to keep their wait now.”
Dasia Moore can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @daijmoore Kay Lazar can be reached at [email protected] Follow her on Twitter @GlobeKayLazar.
