MOSCOW – Fighting erupted a week ago in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenian-majority Azerbaijan, setting off alarms about the dangers of widespread war in Russia, Turkey and Iran.
Decades of conflict took place together in the remote mountainous region of the Caucasus without anyone of strategic importance. Why is this increase in fighting in the past week different from the sporadic violence of the past?
One big difference: in the realm of traditional Russian influence, a more direct connection to the conflict waged by Turkey in support of its ethnic Turkic ally, Azerbaijan.
The fight comes as Turkey increasingly wraps up its muscles in the Middle East and North Africa, increasing the risks of regional growth if the toxic, ethnic conflict remains largely local. And, distracted by the coronavirus epidemic, international mediators missed warning signs warning of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh during the summer, analysts say.
Here is a guide to the conflict and why it has erupted.
The region is an ethnic Tinderbox
A war that broke out between Armenians and Azerbaijanis at the end of the Soviet era has led to an atmosphere of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh today. Independence was declared in the Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan, and it was almost crushed in the ensuing war before its fighters occupied large swathes of Azerbaijan in a series of victorious victories in 1994.
The region became half a dozen of the so-called stable conflict zones in the vast territory of the former Soviet Union. Its deep-rooted ethnic animosity set it apart, however, due to the fact that it was the only collapsing state not occupied by the Russian army.
The settlement was reached 26 years ago, always temporary, with about 600,000 Azerbaijanis fleeing their homes to become vulnerable to attack by Azerbaijan-Karabakh, which vowed to retake the area.
The global oil market, as always, became a backdrop for the conflict, as oil exporter Azerbaijan’s growing economic and military strength.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region has always been ready for new local conflicts, but in the past Russia and Turkey have cooperated at times to contain tensions. The latest fighting began on September 27th. Azerbaijan said Armenia had previously sheltered its positions, while Armenia says Azerbaijan’s aggression was uncontrollable. At least 150 people have been killed.
Local fighting threatens to draw in regional power
The strained cooperation between Turkey and Russia has begun to wane as both countries become increasingly assertive in the Middle East, and the United States has taken the step.
Relations between the three countries have become more complicated. Turkey has managed to dismantle the United States by cutting off a natural gas pipeline deal that weakens Ukraine by buying anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. At the same time, it is fighting proxy wars against Moscow in Syria and Libya.
Turkey soon appeared on another battlefield where Russia was vulnerable after Turkish troops were killed by Russian airstrikes in Syria earlier this year.
In May, Turkey deployed military advisers, armed drones and Syrian proxy fighters to Libya to advance a UN-backed government and push back a Russian-backed rival group in that war. In July and August Gust, he sent troops and equipment to Azerbaijan for a military exercise.
Armenia has said that Turkey is directly involved in the fighting and that Turkish F-16 fighters shot down the Armenian jet. Turkey denies the allegations.
However, both Russia and France have confirmed Armenia’s claim that Turkey deployed Syrian terrorists in Nagorno-Karabakh following its playbook in Libya.
The deputy chairman of the Russian parliament’s international affairs committee raised the possibility of Russian military intervention for the first time this week as a peaceful effort, although more senior Kremlin and foreign ministry officials are calling for a struggle for negotiations.
Meanwhile, Iran shares a direct border with the broken territory in the grassland, carrying the revolving hills along the banks of the Aras River, the scene of some of the most recent heavy fighting. The Nagorno-Karabakh military said on Thursday it had fired on an Azerbaijani helicopter, which then crashed in Iran.
Warning signs were ignored
Analysts say another former Soviet state, distracted by other issues such as the epidemic and popular uprising in Belarus, missed international mediators with warning signs and potential openings for diplomacy.
Olesya Vartanyan, a senior Caucasus analyst with the International Crisis Group, said traditional shuttle diplomacy during the summer was hampered by travel restrictions related to the coronavirus. For fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh, “this is the right time to start the war,” he said.
Retired Turkish General Ismail Hakki Pekin has said that when Russia’s ally Armenia shot dead a civilian and other officers in the Azerbaijani army during a missile strike during a border clash in July, Turkey immediately offered to help prepare a response. Hakki told Peckin.
A joint military exercise between Turkey and Azerbaijan began. The declining role of the United States was a background as Turkey pursued its resolute policies, although the United States has never been as influential in the South Caucasus as Russia.
Now what to look for
The last major American attempt to mediate peace in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was 20 years ago when the United States invited both sides to Florida for talks, but the issue slipped off the US agenda after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
The mediators then promoted regional change, including Azerbaijan’s defeat in the 1990s war, but the two sides did not agree on a land trade.
Analysts say the most optimistic outcome in the current fighting will be a return to the same unhappy situation a week ago, rather than a comprehensive war that will drag on in Turkey and Russia.
