In chart 10, what is the cause of climate change

Heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes and other extreme weather events have made the controversy over climate change in the headlines undeniable and inevitable. Who or what is responsible for this?

That sounds like a simple enough question, but like so many things about climate change, the more you check it the more complicated it becomes. He points out that there are many ways to get rid of guilt.

To illustrate this point, I have borrowed some charts from a recent research note by investment researcher Morgan Stanley (with permission). They help to figure out who has been emitting in the past, who has been emitting more or less over time, and what fuels and activities are leading to change. None of this data is original – they are all public – but putting these charts in one place can help wrap our minds in so many different ways that questions about responsibility for climate change can be drawn.

What question do we ask when we ask who is to blame for climate change?

If the question is which country currently emits the most greenhouse gases, the answer is China.

Morgan Stanley

If the question is which country or region emits the most greenhouse gases, the answer is … there is still China, but “other Asia” is fast approaching (even as Europe declines).

Morgan Stanley

If the question is which country emits the most greenhouse gases per capita, the answer is American, from a fairly wide distance. (Canada and Australia also have higher per capita emissions, as are some Middle Eastern countries, not on this chart.)

Morgan Stanley

If the question is which region or country is already responsible for the largest share of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, then the answer is Europe …

Morgan Stanley

… But these days, the time between North America and Asia, ranks third along with Europe, according to our World in Data.

Data in the World

If the question is which country is responsible for the highest emissions, it is the U.S. Is, double that of its closest rival, China.

If the question is which country or region is moving fast in the right direction, the answer is Europe. (See China – is it a peak or a stop?)

Morgan Stanley

If the question is which fuel contributes the most to climate change, the answer to the 21st century is coal, followed by oil and natural gas.

Morgan Stanley

If the question is which economic sector contributes the most greenhouse gases, the answer is electricity and heat.

Morgan Stanley

This chart of Our World in Data makes it even clearer that, globally, the growing demand for electricity and heating is the main driver of emissions, with transport increasingly far second.

Data in the World

(Note that in the U.S., the situation is a bit different – transport emissions are rising and electricity field emissions are falling. The lines have crossed recently.)

The story was told by Data

The story told by these charts is familiar to those who have been following climate change for some time. Fossil-fueled industrial development came to the EU, then it came to North America, and as it was going on in China, the world learned that, alas, this development would destabilize the atmosphere and potentially destroy the biosphere. And besides, the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere means that the rest of humanity’s carbon budget is dangerously low. If the model of development continues with a proven record of success as it has in the past, it will turn out to be very dangerous.

It is a crude deal for China, as well as for India, Vietnam and other countries in the West trying to bring their citizens to a level of wealth and comfort. At the same time, it is mostly mer tide economies that face the greatest risks of climate change, so they must simply change at their own risk.

In this mess of situations, the answer to the question of responsibility for climate change is always yes, and. Yes, North America and the EU should accept their historical responsibility for emissions. They eat up most of the carbon budget, developing in a way that is now beyond the reach of the world’s billions of poor people. In return for this good fortune, they have a responsibility to turn the world’s ging tidal economy towards sustainable development and increase their resilience to climate damage.

And it is the responsibility of China, India, and other developing countries to see that, for better or worse, they are at the helm of the weather in the next century, and that every part of fossil-fueled development results in more suffering later in the century.

North America and the EU have yet to give the world some room (and some assistance) to raise their living standards; The rest of the world has its own way of trying to discourage welfare from material consumption and waste.

In the end, the conversation about responsibility leads to all climate conversations: the only hope of avoiding catastrophic damage, regardless of their history and competition, is that every country is equipped as quickly as possible.

Electricity must be quickly decontaminated to get rid of coal; Rapid electrification of heat and transport is essential to get rid of oil and natural gas. Wealthy countries should come together to reduce the cost of clean energy technologies through research and mass deployment; Developing countries should work as hard as possible to replace clean technologies when long-term industrial policy and infrastructure are taken into account. And those with the resources have done less to prepare for the turbulent century.

Whoever is at fault, we either chip in to solve it or we all suffer.

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