One expert cautioned that relying on immunity to Covid-19 as a strategy to deal with the pandemic is not a “safe bet,” adding that mass immunity strategies “will probably never work.”
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday, Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, said that in towns and cities where there had been coronavirus infections, it was likely that only 10% to 15% of the population was immune.
“And the immunity to this thing seems pretty fragile: It seems that some people may have antibodies for a few months and then it may decrease, so it doesn’t seem like a safe bet,” he said. “It is a very tricky virus and its immunity is very confusing and short lived.”
He also raised questions about the likely success of so-called herd immunity, when a population is allowed some exposure to the virus to generate immunity among the general population, which has been cited by health officials in Sweden, which controversially avoided a blockage. .
Despite the global race to find a coronavirus vaccine, experts still don’t know whether the antibodies present in people who have had the virus actually provide immunity to reinfection.
White House chief health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci speculated last month that if Covid-19 behaved like other coronaviruses, “there will likely be no long-lasting immunity” from the antibodies or a vaccine. Meanwhile, the WHO has stated that it is not clear whether those who have already contracted the virus once will be immune to contracting it again.
The Altmann at Imperial College London said Monday it was expecting a second wave of Covid-19, and that while governments were much better prepared for a resurgence of infections, the situation remained “very, very frightening.”
“Anyone who thinks it has become milder or has disappeared or that the problem is somehow going to be solved is joking,” he told CNBC. “It is still a very lethal virus, it still infects people very, very easily. And I think humanity is not used to dealing with those realities.”
He also emphasized that predictions about whether or when an effective vaccine against Covid-19 could be identified were difficult to make.
“The devil is in the details, vaccines are not that easy,” said Altmann. “There are over 100 on trial right now and a lot can go wrong along the way. I am not betting at the moment.”
David King, a former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, warned in an interview with Sky News on Sunday that the UK would have an additional 27,000 deaths from Covid-19 if it stayed on its current trajectory. To date, 44,305 people have died from Covid-19 in the UK, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Altmann told CNBC that he agreed with this projection “to some degree,” claiming that many scientists, immunologists, and vaccine experts were still “very scared” by the pandemic.
He recognized that policymakers needed to strike a balance between protecting public health and preventing socioeconomic disasters, but added: “We have to continue to be guided by science and medicine and do the right thing. And doing the right thing means everything. what can be done to block the transmission. “
The new coronavirus strain, which was first reported to the WHO in late December, has infected more than 11.4 million people and has killed 534,825 worldwide to date, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. .
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, warned last week that the pandemic was accelerating worldwide as economies began to reopen.
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