If Minnesotans go to the polls Tuesday, the political futures of one of the state’s most progressive Democrats – as well as the most conservative – will be on the ballot.
In the Fifth District of Minnesota, voters will decide whether to Rep. Ilhan Omar – a former Somali refugee and one of the first Muslim women ever to serve in Congress – wants to return to Washington. And in the Seventh District, voters will choose a Republican challenger for Rep. Collin Peterson, a 15-term official who has been detained for term after term in an increasingly rescued district in western Minnesota.
Every place in Minnesota already has general election matchups set up – like in Minnesota’s Second Congressional District, where official Rep. Angie Craig, who flipped the GOP control seat in 2018, is up against Marine Corps veteran Tyler Kistner – if not expected to be competitive.
In the fourth district of Minnesota will longtime Democratic rep. Betty McCollum faces a handful of challengers, including political strategist and first-time candidate Alberder Gillespie, who co-founded the organization Black Women Rising. McCollum won her 2018 primary with more than 80 percent of the vote in 2018.
The race in the Minnesota Senate is also effectively included: Neither incumbent Senator Tina Smith nor presumptive GOP challenger Jason Lewis, who previously represented Minnesota’s Second District in the House of Representatives, have serious primaries to contend with on Tuesday, and their focus is on November.
Fifth District of Minnesota: A progressive luminaire in a harsh footlight
Tip O’Neill’s old aphorism claims that “all politics is local.” But in the Fifth District of Minnesota, which lies around Minneapolis, national politics has posed a challenge to reps. Ilhan Omar of Attorney Antone Melton-Meaux.
Melton-Meaux is not too far from Omar on the issues, and he marks himself as a “lifelong progressive.” But it is not his position on Medicare-for-all as a similar progressive policy that has driven his candidacy: Instead, it is not like Omar, who serves as a whip for the Congressional Progressive Caucus. On the back of an (allegedly racist and sexist) anti-Omar backlog, Melton-Meaux raised only a whopping $ 3.2 million in the second quarter of 2020.
As BuzzFeed’s Molly Hensley-Clancy reported last month, much of that money came from large donations and pro-Israel bundlers. And for both candidates, many of their donors are from the state.
Melton-Meaux has criticized Omar on at least two fronts: One, her voting record – not what she voted for, but the number of votes she missed. (Omar lost about 6 percent of the vote in 2019.)
“I was hoping she would use her platform to do great work for the neighborhood,” he told MinnPost. “But what I’ve seen since then is someone who’s not voting for and someone who’s not voting for.”
And two, Israel: Omar supports the Boycott, Divest, Sanction, or BDS movement; Melton-Meaux, meanwhile, has the support of several pro-Israel groups.
But for all the traction Melton-Meaux has won in the race, it is not too likely that Omar is going somewhere – a recent poll commissioned by her campaign found her with a 37-point lead over Melton-Meaux, with the other three challengers – journalist Les Lester, campaign strategist John Mason, and lawyer Daniel McCarthy – relegated to single figures.
Omar has a long list of high profile clues to her name, both in Minnesota and nationwide. First Chamber Tina Smith, Second Chamber Nancy Pelosi, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz all supported their candidacy, although the Minneapolis Star-Tribune chose last week to support Melton-Meaux.
Larry Jacobs, a professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, believes Omar will win on Tuesday – and continue to win the trusted Blue District in November.
“Yes, she’s controversial,” he said. ‘Yes, she has alienated some Democrats and angered the Jewish community. But she is in a district where she is progressive and voters are progressive. And so she will, I think, win the primary and continue to be reborn. ”
Minnesota Seventh District: The third time is the charm?
According to some metrics, rep. Collin Peterson is the most conservative member of the House of Representatives’ 232-member majority – and he’s even freer than his district. First elected to the House of Representatives in 1990, Peterson represents a district that went ahead of Trump by 30 points in 2016, meaning the National Republican Congressional committee is fighting at the bit for a chance to tip his seat this cycle.
However, before the Minnesota GOP joins Peterson, there is still a five-way primary coming up on Tuesday.
Air Force veteran Dave Hughes is something of a perennial candidate in the 7th District of Minnesota, where he has now won the Republican nomination twice and went on to Peterson. This year, former Minnesota Lieutenant Gov. Michelle Fischbach seems to be his main challenger en route to the nomination, but three other candidates – Dr. Noel Collis, Rev. Jayesun Sherman, and farmer William Louwagie – are also running.
Although Hughes was the salvo candidate in 2018, when he lost to Peterson by just over 4 points, in 2020 Fischbach won endorsements from President Donald Trump, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the Minnesota Seventh District Republican Party.
It has already been a controversial race: According to MinnPost, the former Fischbach campaign manager pleaded guilty to harassing Hughes just last month. However, most signs point to her being the favorite headline on Tuesday. Not only does she hold the edge in terms of big-name tenders, but she has a more than 10: 1 fundraising advantage – MinnPost reports that she had more than $ 900,000 in the bank last month compared to just $ 66,000 for Hughes .
If Fischbach wins on Tuesday, though, she’s unlikely to have an easy time in November, despite how much the district favored Trump in 2016. Peterson has at least one major advantage: He is chairman of the influential House Agriculture committee, a plumbing position for someone representing a rural district.
“Donald Trump won with double figures in his district,” Jacobs said. ‘It is through the very power of Peterson’s name that he persists, although it is worth saying that his last few elections have been competitive. He once won with big double figures. ”
Currently, the Cook Political Report in Minnesota assesses the Seventh District as a toss-up this November. Jacobs, however, believes Peterson, 76, will pull off a win. ‘But,’ he adds, ‘this may be his last election. I mean, it’s not fun for him anymore. This is like a fistfight. ”
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