I would say that is a very good scenario because it is so close to what we are doing, pre-epidemic, it would seem impossible: to make, test, authenticate, produce not just one, but many vaccines in a surprisingly compressed timeline. And delivering – is definitely one of our greatest recent medical achievements. Also, we’ve learned a lot about the virus, in real-time, and given new – and some older – drugs to treat it.
In the worst case the patient has to do with what he is doing. Increasingly weak, sensitive and seriously ill. Initially, the disease was localized, easy to manage with good prognosis. Over time, however, my patient did not always listen to the recommendations, and the disease spread to every state in the country.
For comparison, in the week of May 18, the country saw about 23,000 new cases a day; By the week of July, that number had risen to around 48,000.
This past week has been so bad that Covid-19 was the leading cause of death in the United States, beating coronary heart disease, according to a calculation by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at Washington University.
So despite the best advice, the best care, the patient’s condition continues to deteriorate. As of July, instead of being localized in some hotspots in need of invasive treatment, the infection now surrounds almost the entire patient.
It is such a dangerous cause that at the beginning of this epidemic, and even in July, there were many built-in reserves and redundancies. If one part of the body is in crisis, the other part of the body can act to keep the patient relatively stable. For example, we saw how spring and summer and back in the summer, when a place – such as New York City or Houston – was overflowing, doctors and nurses rushed to help. Alternatively, patients can be transported from a crowded hospital to a nearby low-stress facility.
Redundancies, escape hatches, reserves – call them whatever you tell them, but they no longer exist for the patient, the country. Now, hospital systems are reaching their breaking points after the state report. Not only are there fewer hospital beds available, but front line health care workers and support staff – from doctors and nurses to hospital cleaners on orders – are tired, worn out and sick in ever-increasing numbers. And there is no one to change them.
How long can a patient stay?
In general, when the human body is faced with an emergency situation – be it an uncontrollable infection, massive bleeding or something equally devastating – there are all these biological protective mechanisms that make up for the tricks systems that pull the body out. These self-defense tendencies are part of the reflective nature of our biology.
But this patient, our country, instead of trying to compensate and maintain balance at all costs, is disruptive and shows little inclination to do what it can to spoil itself.
The IHME predicts that states will respond once we hit the per capita mortality rate for every ten people killed, and the country’s defense mechanisms will begin, leading to measures such as the resumption of stay-at-home orders.
Eight out of every million deaths work for about 2,800 deaths every day – and we’ve already gone through that in the past. But the country’s defense systems have not necessarily advanced on a large scale. While many people in this country wear masks and follow physical distance guidelines, many still do not.
Wearing a mask is a political statement and is not mandatory in 15 states. Only seven states have any kind of stay-at-home order, advice or curfew on which many wars have been fought.
The outgoing Trump White House kicked off its holiday party season this week, hosting more than a dozen group gatherings, including restrictions on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines, size restrictions, and Washington, DC, indoor gatherings. This holiday season most of us miss spending time with our families, and I remind people of the dangers of doing so on television. Nevertheless, the administration itself has already become the center of at least three Covid-19 outbreaks among staff and colleagues, and will put many more guests, workers and employees at risk in a series of events such as holiday gatherings.
U.S. Surgeon General Dr. That’s exactly what Jerome Adams requested of Fox News on Friday. “For all the leaders out there, we need to draw by example in the next few weeks and really help people reach the finish line because, again, it’s in sight,” he said.
And the end is really a sight. Assistance, in the form of one or more vaccines, is on the horizon. This patient, our country, will of course live. But any immature vaccine, when nothing less than a scientific and logistical miracle, will not be immediately fixed. It will take many months to half a year, to be distributed to communities everywhere.
So, the question we have to ask ourselves is: How many Americans will we let die in the meantime?
President-elect Joe Biden told CNN’s Jack Tapper on Thursday that he would ask Americans to commit for 100 days by wearing a mask as one of his first tasks as president. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Disease Control and Prevention The centers strengthened its recommendations for the use of masks, calling them “critical” for controlling the spread of coronavirus.
According to the most recent IHME model, if 95% of people wear a mask, the chances of Covid-19 deaths by April 1 could be reduced to 66,000. Think about it. One of them could be your own mother, your old neighbor, your favorite musician or the next brilliant scientist. It could be your life or mine.
In addition to wearing masks, we should limit our activities and reduce capacity in certain types of business. A modeling study by researchers at Stanford and Northwestern University showed that in most cities, coronavirus infections account for a small minority of the places people visit. And suggests that minimizing business in such locations, including restaurants, gyms, cafes, hotels and places of worship – can significantly slow the spread of the disease.
This type of move, or of course, causes the patient a certain amount of pain – so leaders should be prepared to give pain medications. In this metaphor, morphine comes in the form of money for victims, economic stimulation.
Our human spirit has made us innovative, creative, resourceful and rigid enough to see this dream of vaccinated bear fruit come true. But it is our human behavior and biological reactions that determine how deep our wounds eventually go. No science can save us from ourselves.
I can only hope that this country’s self-defense instinct kicks in soon, and for many of us to reach the finish line as soon as possible.
Andre Kane of CNN Health contributed to this report.
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