If reg regonians do not change their routes quickly, new estimates show COVID-19 to be celestial

Month Reagan’s COVID-19 cases have been rising to record levels since last month. Officials say it will get worse unless the state’s 2.2 million residents change their behavior immediately.

New modeling released on Friday shows that if the transmission continues at its current rate, the number of newly identified cases – known as case counts – is expected to rise from 345 to 570 per day by November 5.

Because most cases cannot be detected, officials estimate that the actual number of reg regionians infected each day will be about 2,200. That is an increase of% increase% and that state health officer Dr. Dean “puts Tedlinger in trouble.”

But even worse, if the transmission rate increases in the next three weeks, the number of new cases reported every day could more than double to 7,440. It will translate into 4,400 infected Oregonians each day, whether they recognize their case or not. Some experts say this is a very plausible scenario as the virus is expected to spread more easily in the coming weeks due to Halloween parties, tricks or behaviors and cold, humid weather that will prompt residents to spend more time indoors.

Nonetheless, officials with reg Reagan Health Authority did not announce any new restrictions or public safety measures on Friday. Instead, they repeated a message that they had been stressed for months: Keep your physical distance from people who are not members of your household. Avoid gathering in large social groups. Wear a mask. Wash your hands

“I’m sorry we don’t have a more constructive message,” said Pat Allen, director of the Reagan Health Authority, at a virtual press conference.

He again urged the reg Regionians to change their personal behaviors.

“A trend emerges when we study our data: social gatherings continue to be a powerful driver of this boom,” Ellen said, adding that many people are not careful enough. “… We must find ways to socialize safely without endangering family or friends.”

That approach – try harder to do better to urge more people – has not been clearly echoed in light of last month’s data. The number of newly known daily infections has almost doubled since September 11. At the same time, the positivity rate has increased by an absolute percentage point, returning to 5.1% of all tests that are positive.

On Friday, Governav. Kate Brown added Lane County to her “list,” which would allow more state resources to flow into the county to help fight the virus. Lane County has compiled the list, in part due to an increase in inflammatory infections caused by students at the University of Reykjavઓk, who have gathered for large crowds for large-on-campus parties and small get-togethers.

At the press conference, Lenlan and Sidlinger refused to approve a change in the governor’s recommendation that Reg Regonio throw out the parties or keep a get-together with 10 or fewer people. Both officials said advising people to avoid gathering with extended family or friends is not sustainable or incompatible with human nature.

“We know there’s fatigue,” Siedlinger said. “People do that socialization with family members outside of their family and their friends.”

Len Lawn and Sidlinger also reiterated the state’s recommendation against Halloween parties and tricks or behaviors this year in person, risking being exposed to scores or hundreds of different people at the front door.

In contrast, some cities and states across the country have imposed mandatory restrictions.

Beverly Hills, California., Springfield, Mass .; Till cities have declared a ban on trick-or-treating.

In some states, including Vermont, which has the lowest infection rate in the country, most or all people need to be isolated for 14 days after crossing their border.

California and many other states have closed their shutters.

In August Gust, more than 150 Oregon doctors signed a letter urging the governor to close bars and possibly ban indoor dining in restaurants. A few weeks later, Brown said he intends to do so if the case continues to escalate. Since then, there has been an increase of about 345 cases from an average of 256 new known infections per day.

But on Friday, Len Lawn and Sidlinger said they had no evidence that COVID-19 was spread in the bar or in the dining room of rest restaurants rent in O Reagan. Seidelinger said officials will know if there is a transmission problem in these businesses as public health investigators ask people who have tested positive for a list of all locations that have been exposed to the virus. He admitted, however, that he did not specifically ask if people had recently gone to bars or restrooms.

Carlos Crespo, director of school community community health at Portland State University, said closing the bar for indoor service is a tactic that should employ Reg Reagan, as the virus is easily transmitted in enclosed spaces where unmasked people speak loudly.

“When you have a bar open inside the house, you’ll ask for trouble,” Crespo said.

In September, the U.S. Department of Disease Control and Prevention A study by the Centers found that people who tested positive for COVID-19 were twice as likely to have recently eaten at a restaurant, although the study did not specify how often those cats ate indoors or outdoors. .

Sidlinger said Reg Reagan’s ability to counteract the pace and slow the spread depends on the decisions everyone makes. The modeling released on Friday outlines an optimistic scenario – if members of the public curb risky COVID-19 behaviors, the case could drop by about 20% in the next three weeks. This means that today’s average number of 5 345 new known cases will be reduced to 300. And the total number of infections – a large number that cannot be detected – will come down to an average of 800 infected residents per day.

But it can be a tall order considering the cold and rainy days of fall.

“This new modeling suggests we still have a long way to go to stop the spread,” Siedlinger said. “But reg regonians have done it before. And I’m confident they can do it again. “

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– Amy Green; [email protected]; o_aimee