Suppose we live in a world where Dak Prescott is no longer the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. It’s the spring of 2021. And Ben DiNucci and Clayton Thorson are the Cowboys’ only quarterbacks under contract.
Still dizzy? Could occur. As I explained in my first “Life Without Dak” article, nothing with Prescott is guaranteed after the 2020 season, and while getting Prescott on a long-term deal is still the best option, the Cowboys have to explore ALL options on case the The relationship goes completely south.
So Part 1 was about whether the Cowboys had ammo to promote from within in a world without Dak. Part 2 is about whether the Cowboys could find a capable replacement in free agency.
In my first article, I noted that Andy Dalton, the current # 2 on the list, remains an option in 2021, even though he is not under contract. That makes Dalton a free agent option. And I described the pros and cons here.
But what about the rest of the landscape? There is only one name that really awakens the mind.
Cam Newton.
The former NFL MVP has a one-year contract in New England that will pay him less than $ 2 million in 2020 (Prescott will make more than $ 30 million this season, so guess that a bit). The Panthers did not want Newton after nine seasons. Newton won 68 games, led the Panthers to four playoff appearances and Super Bowl 50. Until last season, when he played only two games due to injury, he was extremely long-lasting and lost no more than two games per season. He threw for over 29,000 yards and 182 touchdown passes. He also ran for nearly 4,806 yards and scored 58 touchdowns.
I’m very interested to see what the Patriots do with him this season. Bill Belichick and his staff tend to adapt their system to their quarterbacks, and do not attempt to force the system on them. It may not seem that way, since Tom Brady was in charge of that crime for a long time. But, if you look at the maturing of that crime, you will see that the adjustments were made for Brady and not the other way around. Also, these guys made Matt Cassel look like a boss. You remember him, right?
Newton’s arm, while erratic, can make that offense more vertical than it has been in recent years. Newton also has a lower completion percentage than Brady, professionally. Newton completed 59.6 percent of his passes at Carolina. Brady completed 63.8 percent of his passes in New England.
I think there’s a good chance that if Newton wins the initial job in New England, and frankly, he should, he could have the kind of make-up season that puts him in a position for a bigger long-term contract in 2021. It might interest the Patriots in the long run. But it would certainly interest other NFL teams in that scenario as well. And, if Prescott doesn’t return to Dallas, a rejuvenated Newton could also interest the Cowboys.
For the record, I’m not sure why you would go after Newton when you have Prescott. Aside from youth (Prescott is four years younger than Newton), Prescott has a better completion rate than BOTH Newton and Brady (65.8 percent). That doesn’t mean Prescott will lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl anytime soon. But that difference of more than five percent makes a difference over the course of an entire season. Also, Prescott’s touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.69) is one full point better than Newton’s (1.68). And, Prescott throws an interception every 57.5 pass attempts, while Newton throws one every 36.8 pass attempts. If I’m the Cowboys, Prescott seems like a better long-term option.
Also, you should look at the REST of possible free agent options (subject to change, of course):
Philip Rivers: Close to 40 and could be retired after 2020.
Mitch Trubisky: The former No. 2 overall pick who may not even beat Nick Foles for the initial job in Chicago this year. The fact that the Bears rejected the possibility of exercising their fifth-year option is an important red flag.
Jacoby Brissett: A less dynamic Newton or Prescott, if we are honest.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Look Rivers, Philip.
Tyrod Taylor: See Brissett, Jacoby.
Jameis Winston: See Brissett, Jacoby, although I could learn a few things in New Orleans.
Colin Kaepernick: He hasn’t snapped since 2016. There’s no way to tell how much rust is in his arm. Right now he is actually older (32) than Newton. Kaepernick was, more or less, as accurate a quarterback as Newton. But you can’t rule it for a reason: it’s a name everyone knows, and you know how Jerry Jones loves those ‘names’. If the Cowboys saw it as an option in 2021, it would probably be a one-year incentive-based deal.
You got the idea. Right now, based on what we expect to see in free agency in 2021, Newton is probably the only multi-year, long-term contract answer. He’s probably the only player who could take the Cowboys’ offense and keep it at the level necessary to be a playoff contender (this of course doesn’t take into account that we haven’t seen new offensive head coach Mike McCarthy is installing). There are some cheap options, but they would be temporary one-year stops and would mean the Cowboys feel their young options, DiNucci or Thorson, are making headlines, or they see an option in the NFL Draft 2021 that it takes a year to to mature.
And that’s where the next piece will take us: Is there a viable option to replace Prescott, long-term, in the NFL Draft 2021?
