I.A.A. Says coronavirus response could ‘reshape the future of’

The International Energy Agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook report on Tuesday that the world’s response to Covid-19 could “reshape the future of energy energy” in the coming years.

I.E.A. The most important is how the crisis will ultimately affect the transition to a cleaner state, the report stressed.

The report notes that as clean energy continues to gain momentum, faster and darker structural changes are needed if the world is to reach net-zero carbon emissions.

“The Covid-19 crisis has caused more disruption than any other event in recent history, and traces remain that will last for years,” the Paris-based agency said in a statement. “Kovid-19 expressed dissatisfaction with the crisis of extraordinary ferocity on the countries of the world … this crisis is still unfolding today – and its consequences for the future of the world’s energy are extremely uncertain.”

Going forward, I.A.A. Believes that the renewable subsidiary will take a “central phase” driven by government policies and declining spending.

“I see solar becoming the new king of the world’s electricity markets,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IIA. “Based on today’s policy settings, setting new records for deployment every year after 2022 is on track.”

On the other hand, I.A.A. Predicts that coal demand will not return to pre-coronavirus levels, and that it will account for less than 20% of consumption by 2040 for the first time since the 40th Industrial Revolution. Oil will “be vulnerable to major economic uncertainties as a result of the epidemic,” the agency said.

IEA expects global energy demand to decline by 5% in 2020, with oil and coal consumption falling by 8% and 7%, respectively, due to the ongoing effects of the Covid-1 ongoing.

Demand for natural gas is expected to fall 3% this year – the biggest drop since it became a major source of fuel in the 1930s – but the agency will boost demand in the coming decade as the economy grows. The outlook has changed slightly since April, when the agency predicted that energy demand could fall by 6% in 2020.

As is the case with Roma, the report outlines the effects of many different scenarios than the number of variables in flux. But parting from recent years, the IEA has chosen to focus more on the core over the next 10 years.

Under the “State Policies Cisenio”, “Covid-19” will be brought under control in 2021 and energy demand will return to pre-crisis levels in 2023, while the “delayed recovery recovery scenario” model, with slow economic recovery from epidemics will not rebound until 2025. Demand.

The other two – “Sustainable Development Scenario” and “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” – outline the steps required to reach the stated environmental goals. In the previous scenario, net-zero emissions are achieved by 2070, while in the latter, aggressive policies mean the target is achieved by 2050.

“Today’s crisis presents a shocker for efforts to bring about a more secure and sustainable energy system, and it is too early to say whether there is a catalyst to accelerate the path of change,” the report said.

The only source of energy to grow this year is renewable energy. Most of the growth comes from solar, and it is set to continue in the coming years as prices fall, making solar a cheaper source of electricity than new coal and gas-powered plants.

Under the specific policies scenario, renewables are on track to meet 80% growth in electricity demand over the next 10 years. By 2025, renewable coal will overtake primary means of power generation. If more aggressive policies are adopted, renewables will play an even bigger role in the next five or more years, the report said.

However, one obstacle stands in the way of renewable power generation: the old electrical grid.

“Without adequate investment, the grid will prove to be a weak link in the transformation of the power sector, affecting the reliability and security of power supply,” the IIA said.

The coronavirus epidemic hit the oil industry earlier this year as demand for fuel declined due to orders at the shelter. Eventually, the coronavirus erased “almost a decade of development in a single year.”

Compared to 2020, overall demand is expected to be one million barrels per day lower than in 2019, although the agency expects demand to pick up again in 2023. The agency expects a rebound by 2030, at a time when “oil demand is reaching a plateau.” The return on most growth will come from emerging and developing economies, especially India. In the delayed recovery recovery scenario, however, oil demand will not recover until 2027.

The IEA notes that while some coronavirus-induced changes are negative for oil demand – including domestic work and travel restrictions – some side effects are supportive, such as the neglect of public transport and the continued popularity of SUVs, among other things.

Falling demand led to a weakening of oil prices earlier this year and a long-term low, which could lead to price fluctuations due to a lack of investment in the industry.

The report notes the economic consequences for oil-dependent countries.

The IIA said that now the basic efforts of some large oil and gas exporters to diversify and improve the economy seem inevitable. The agency drew attention to the large oil oil companies writing about the value of their assets as a “clear expression of migration in anticipation of the future.”

Worldwide energy emissions are on the decline this year as economies around the world close to slow the spread of the virus. But the IEA notes that this approach will not lead to a long-term decline, as the bands are in response to one-off rather than structural change.

“The economic downturn has temporarily suppressed emissions, but low economic growth is not a low-emissions strategy – it’s a strategy that will make the world’s most vulnerable populations poorer,” Birol noted. He added, “Governments have the capacity and responsibility to take decisive action to accelerate the transition to clean energy and to put the world on track to reach our climate goals.”

The report stressed that reducing emissions alone is not enough. Instead, existing infrastructure needs to be updated or retired, and significant investments must be made in areas such as carbon capture.

Several countries, including Canada and New Zealand, as well as the European Union, have announced weather plans tailored to the IEA’s sustainable development scenario. But if the world is to reduce emissions at the required rate, the IAA emphasizes that there needs to be global coordination.