The storm turned into a Category 1 storm on Wednesday morning. It has sustained winds of 80 mph and is traveling west toward Hawaii at a speed of 16 mph, according to the Hurricane Center.
The hurricane center said further strengthening is expected in the next day or two and Douglas could become a Category 3 storm or higher. A Category 3 storm has sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph.
Douglas has hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The storm occurred about 1,190 miles (2,715 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii, at 11 am Wednesday morning, the hurricane center said.
“Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing likelihood that strong winds and heavy rains will affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday,” the hurricane center said.
While Douglas is projected to reach Hawaii, environmental conditions mean the storm could weaken significantly before it does.
Rarely do strong hurricanes hit Hawaii
“It is quite common for hurricanes to head toward Hawaii, but they generally dissipate or at least weaken considerably before impacting the islands,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University. “For example, both Lane and Olivia impacted Hawaii in 2018. Also, in 2016, both Lester and Madeline threatened Hawaii.”
Hawaii covers 6,423 square miles of land divided between six major islands, making the possibility of a direct landing even less likely. Florida, by comparison, is a significantly easier hurricane target, covering more than 50,000 square miles
Douglas is expected to bring wind, rain, and dangerous waves to Hawaii over the weekend, although it may be downgraded to a tropical storm when it reaches the islands.
There are other key weather features, such as wind shear and dry air, that forecasters seek to ward off storms from Hawaii or dramatically weaken them before they hit Honolulu’s white sand beaches.
Slow start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific
“Douglas has been upgraded to a 65 kt hurricane, the first of the 2020 eastern Pacific season,” according to the hurricane center. “During the period of reliable records, this is the fourth most recent date that the first hurricane of the season has formed.”
Under La Niña, global convection wind currents produce sinking air over the eastern Pacific and rising air over the western Atlantic. Sinking air patterns increase wind shear, a sudden change in wind direction, speed, or both, which can wreck hurricanes before they have a chance to grow.
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