Tropical storm force winds are forecast to hit the Big Island as soon as Saturday night local time.
The storm is located 895 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and is moving west-northwest directly toward the island chain. The good news is that this major hurricane is forecast to start weakening today as it interacts to cool water and drier air.
Douglas is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane (winds 74 to 95 mph) as it approaches the islands this weekend.
It is likely to weaken further as it approaches Hawaii and will quickly move into a tropical storm as it progresses through the state.
Some forecast models carry the storm directly over the Big Island, some thread the needle between the islands, and others take the storm north of the island chain.
It is important not to focus on the center of the forecast trajectory, but to know that the storm could strike anywhere within the NHC-emitted forecast cone.
“It is quite common for hurricanes to head toward Hawaii, but they generally dissipate or at least weaken considerably before impacting the islands,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University. “For example, both Lane and Olivia impacted Hawaii in 2018. Also, in 2016, both Lester and Madeline threatened Hawaii.”
Although the effects of a hurricane in Hawaii can be severe, it is rare for major hurricanes to hit the shores of the island chain. On the one hand, the Hawaiian Islands are a small parcel of land in the world’s largest ocean basin, making the statistical probability of a direct landing very low.
Hawaii covers 6,423 square miles of land divided between six major islands, making the possibility of a direct landing even less likely. Florida, by comparison, is a significantly easier target for hurricanes, covering more than 50,000 square miles.
Slow start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific
“During the period of reliable records, this is the fourth most recent date that the first hurricane of the season formed,” according to the NHC.
Under La Niña, global convection wind currents produce sinking air over the eastern Pacific and rising air over the western Atlantic. Sinking air patterns increase wind shear, a sudden change in wind direction, speed, or both, which can wreck hurricanes before they have a chance to grow. The rising air creates a favorable environment for the development of tropical storms, which is why all eyes are on the Atlantic this season.
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