The storm is more than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, but moving west-northwest toward the island chain.
The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen today, but is expected to begin to weaken on Friday.
“Douglas is expected to be at or near the intensity of the hurricane as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday,” says NHC.
Rarely do strong hurricanes hit Hawaii
“It is quite common for hurricanes to head toward Hawaii, but they generally dissipate or at least weaken considerably before impacting the islands,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University. “For example, both Lane and Olivia impacted Hawaii in 2018. Also, in 2016, both Lester and Madeline threatened Hawaii.”
Hawaii covers 6,423 square miles of land divided between six major islands, making the possibility of a direct landing even less likely. Florida, by comparison, is a significantly easier hurricane target, covering more than 50,000 square miles
Douglas is expected to bring wind, rain, and dangerous waves to Hawaii over the weekend, although it may be downgraded to a tropical storm when it reaches the islands.
There are other key weather features, such as wind shear and dry air, that forecasters seek to ward off storms from Hawaii or dramatically weaken them before they hit Honolulu’s white sand beaches.
Slow start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific
“Douglas has been upgraded to a 65 kt hurricane, the first of the 2020 eastern Pacific season,” according to the hurricane center. “During the period of reliable records, this is the fourth most recent date that the first hurricane of the season has formed.”
Under La Niña, global convection wind currents produce sinking air over the eastern Pacific and rising air over the western Atlantic. Sinking air patterns increase wind shear, a sudden change in wind direction, speed, or both, which can wreck hurricanes before they have a chance to grow.
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