There have been a handful of tropical storms on the islands, but hurricane-force storms have been very rare.
The two times since 1900 when a hurricane made landfall were Hurricane Iniki in 1992 and Hurricane Dot in 1959. Iniki was a strong Category 4 storm on the ground and Hurricane Dot was Category 1.
“It is quite common for hurricanes to head towards Hawaii, but they generally dissipate or at least weaken considerably before impacting the islands,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University.
“For example, both Lane and Olivia impacted Hawaii in 2018. Also, in 2016, both Lester and Madeline threatened Hawaii.”
On Sunday, Douglas was a Category 1 storm located just north of the Big Island of Hawaii, and east of Maui. It heads west-northwest towards the islands of O’ahu and Kauai, where it is possible to make landfall in one or both places.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Oahu County and Kauai, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for Hawaii County and Maui County.
The main threats are storm surges, dangerous waves, gusty winds, and heavy rains.
“With the center of the storm moving along the north side of the islands, the north and east facing coasts will feel the worst of the wind and high waves at first,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “As the storm continues westward today, winds and high waves will also affect the west and south facing coasts.”
The northern islands will also see the most rainfall. Generalized amounts are likely to be 2 to 4 inches on the Big Island, while rainfall totals will likely exceed 5 to 8 inches from Maui County to Kauai County. Some isolated locations with elevated terrain could collect up to 15 inches of rain before the system is removed Monday.
Slow start to hurricane season in the eastern Pacific
“During the period of reliable records, this is the fourth most recent date that the first hurricane of the season has formed,” according to the National Hurricane Center.
Under La Niña, global convective wind currents produce sinking air over the eastern Pacific and rising air over the western Atlantic.
Sinking air patterns increase wind shear, a sudden change in wind direction, speed, or both, which can wreck hurricanes before they have a chance to grow. The rising air creates a favorable environment for the development of tropical storms, which is why all eyes are on the Atlantic this season.
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