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Mexican farmers have rebelled and want to prevent the country’s authorities from exporting hundreds of millions of cubic meters of water to the United States despite the drought. In California, growing water shortages and climate change have been a major concern for years, with disputes over rivers and reservoirs in other countries.
There was already blood in Mexico: when police and soldiers opened fire on a crowd gathered at the La Boquilla dam, throwing stones and attacking with husangs, a woman was killed and her husband was seriously injured. Violent acts have been frequent at the massive structure near the U.S.-Mexico border in recent weeks, as the dam retains much of the 300 million cubic meters of water that would have to be delivered to the United States under the long-standing Mexican-American convention. nak. Even if a drought like the one in Mexico is devastating right now and there wouldn’t be enough water for farmers if they could irrigate from the reservoir.
It is understandable, therefore, that Mexican farmers are doing everything possible to keep the water with them, and if the water is eventually transferred to the neighbor, it will not take advantage of the popularity of the new head of state, András Manuel López Obrador, who arrived to power with populist slogans. “If the government comes here and seizes our property, we have no choice but to protect ourselves,” farmers promise to allow the water to pass into the United States even after the drought ends.
Roots of World War II
The water supply obligation is based on an agreement reached during World War II: The United States transfers water from the Colorado River to its southern neighbor, while Mexico transfers it from the Rio Grande to its neighbor. “The agreement was made when Mexico and the United States were in alliance and the treaty is very favorable for us. If we do not comply with our obligation, the agreement will expire and we can only do worse in the future, ”said Mexican historian Lorenzo Meyer about the reasons for the Mexican government’s determination.
No, Mexico cannot count on the generosity of the United States just because the president of the United States, Donald Trump, is not famous for his spirit of gift-giving: in the decades since World War II, especially in the last forty years, the Climate in California, jointly owned by the United States and Mexico, has changed significantly. The amount of precipitation decreased significantly, its distribution became even more unpredictable, while the average temperature also increased markedly. Due to unfavorable processes, forest fires of unprecedented magnitude are destroying the area and as a result hundreds of settlements must be evacuated.
Agricultural production also suffers from a long-lasting drought: new and more drought-tolerant crops had to be changed, but there were some that did not help either. Since the 1990s, tens of thousands of Mexican farmers have gone bankrupt and emigrated, mostly illegally, to the United States.
Sunken world
On the American side, at least for now, the situation is a little better. But the San Joaquin Valley, which is the breadbasket of California, and perhaps the entire United States, is already maturing into a crisis. The vast Lake Tulare was drained decades ago and now, due to centuries, the groundwater is dramatically depleted. Soil subsidence has accelerated significantly in the last three years, some where the soil has been almost ten meters lower, and it has now become clear that the exploitation of the current nature of irrigated agriculture is completely unsustainable.
Only because, due to decreasing groundwater levels, the water now being pumped to the surface is in many cases contaminated with minerals, increasing the number of those who do not have access to drinking water of adequate quality. “There are many who pay three times more for non-potable water: they pay for the use of tap water, then for bottled water and finally for the doctor who cures them from diseases caused by contaminated water,” said the director of a local NGO.
Global crisis
Worsening water scarcity is not just a major concern in North America. The UN estimates that by 2050, some five billion people will live in areas where there will not be enough water permanently. As a result, more conflicts will emerge, with twice the number of water-related incidents in the world than a decade ago, according to a survey by the Pacific Institute in California. In Mali, Africa, there is often a bloody debate among farmers, ranchers and fishermen about the regulation of the Niger River Delta. This is because farmers support the construction of irrigation canals, while ranchers fear grasslands and fishermen fear fish populations will be decimated as water levels drop.
In Iraq, where 120,000 people fell ill from contaminated water, mass protests broke out and experts say serious clashes could break out in Central Asia over water shortages as well. For example, between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, where sufficient cooperation can only be ensured through cooperation between the two countries. It is also clear that the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, which has lasted for more than a decade, is partly due to the drought in the Middle East and the massive impoverishment of farmers in the region.
The world’s largest cities are also facing increasingly serious problems: Cape Town was the first major city to run out of water for several days in 2018 due to a drought, but a similar threat threatens Barcelona, London, Jakarta and Mexico City. In the latter city, forty percent of the water is also seeping into the old network of pipes.
A man in Cape Town fills his plastic can with spring water on January 19, 2018
© MTI / EPA / NIC BOTHMA
Crisis prevention possibilities
Meanwhile, an early warning system has been put in place to monitor events around the world and indicate where there is the greatest danger of another war over water escaping. The application, funded by the Dutch government, is said to be able to predict expected crises at least a year in advance, and the artificial intelligence-based program predicts crises based on the history of the past decades and developments in the region.
So far, the program has predicted 86 percent success, and another conflict over water shortages is expected in India, Pakistan, Iran and Nigeria in the coming months. With the help of the app, steps can be taken to prevent the crisis from deteriorating. “Once that escalation has occurred, it is difficult to resolve the crisis and it will exacerbate the water shortage. That is why it is vital that we can act on time, ”said Susanne Schmeier, one of the creators of the program.
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In California, growing water shortages have been a serious concern for years, but in other countries, disputes over rivers and reservoirs are also causing more violence.
There is at least as much in front of us as behind us.
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