World: Joe Biden also leads Pennsylvania, could be the next US president.

US election experts were able to begin to articulate what would have to be said Thursday afternoon if Joe Biden was almost certain to win, but as long as Donald Trump led in Pennsylvania, he had to remain cautious. Now the time has come:

Joe Biden has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, and unless something major happens, he will win the presidential election.

Let’s take a very brief look at electoral mathematics:

Where we can certainly announce the bottom line, Biden’s cautious summary places Biden at 253-213 in voter turnout.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania (20 voters), he wins the presidential election. With 95 percent processing, he has the advantage of 5,600 votes.

If Pennsylvania were swept away by Donald Trump with big twists and turns, the president would be the one to win two from Georgia (16 voters), Arizona (11) and Nevada (10).

• In Georgia, with 99 percent processing, Biden leads with just 1,100 votes. But the votes of those working abroad and soldiers serving abroad are just beginning to be counted today, and no one can receive status for now.
• With a 90 percent prosecution in Arizona, Biden leads with 49,000 votes. This state is an exception to the national trend, where the last few votes cast tend to help Trump, so much so that the president still has a realistic chance of turning it around.
• In Nevada, with 82 percent processing, Biden has just 11,000 votes. But a significant portion of the remaining votes come from Las Vegas, where Biden is far more popular.
• No winners have yet been announced in North Carolina (15 voters), Alaska (3), and CNN has yet to award 1 voter in Maine’s District 2, but we can safely count that they will almost certainly be Trump.

The Decision Desk, at the time Biden took over the leadership in Pennsylvania, proclaimed him president, and there probably won’t be long to wait for a significant portion of the media to follow.

Why was it so clear?

Nate Cohn, an analyst for The New York Times, first wrote that Biden was doing very well in Pennsylvania when the Democratic nominee cut his disadvantage to 8 percent. He himself wrote earlier: We knew that the votes cast in the letter and cast before Election Day would help Bident, but we didn’t realize how much it really was. And looking at what happened, it’s really hard to realize the differences that we see.

Let’s look at the most important example! In Pennsylvania on election night, Donald Trump led with about 700,000 votes and a 70 percent turnout. It was easy to calculate, as Biden had to win about two-thirds of the remaining 30 percent to take the lead. And not only that, that was exactly what had happened, in many places Biden had a three-quarters proportion of the votes cast. That’s why you could say with 80-90 percent processing that the Democratic candidate’s chances are very good, but until he leads the number of votes cast, no one could say that he would win. Now that he’s taken the initiative, it’s not a big risk to say that Trump should work a miracle on the way back from here.

The same thing happened in Georgia. There, Biden had to win the votes per letter by about 70 percent, and he did exactly that. But we can also see that trend in Arizona, only in favor of Trump, which prevented Biden from calming down.

We are used to the fact that votes come in roughly equal distributions. This is not the case now, everyone still has to get used to the fact that, with a few exceptions, you count an overwhelming majority of Republicans first and then a large number of Democratic votes.

And there was no big surprise in that: FiveThirtyEigth wrote before the election that this is exactly what will happen in Pennsylvania, and Nate Cohn has yet to do so. told me in advance a week beforethat Arizona and Pennsylvania will look like the last hours-days of the vote count. Democrats have asked their voters to cast their votes by letter, and very soon, due to the epidemic, Republicans are voting locally on Election Day, not mentioning in the least how exactly this happened. Furthermore, it was also possible to know in advance that the vote count would take so long.

Why could Biden win?

Biden received 73 million votes, and from California, where they are still in full swing, he can still count on a good deal: A US presidential candidate has never received that many votes. But Donald Trump’s 69 million votes are the second highest value in the perpetual rankings. It seems that both candidates did a very good job mobilizing.

As for the details beyond this, experts will be analyzing exit polls for a long time, so far it seems safe:

• the gap between the cities with a democratic majority and the republican field is enormous and growing,
• Traditionally more conservative older voters have now turned more towards Biden, though the question is whether this will be a trend or whether Trump has screwed up the management of the epidemic.
• Florida was sidelined because Latino youth supported Trump much more than Bident. There are signs of this in Texas too, but you can’t speak of a national trend without a more detailed analysis.
• Small party candidates received far fewer votes than four years ago, so it is not the two most unpopular candidates of all time who faced off.
• And although there was a lot of enthusiasm for the electoral system, there was only one time in the last twenty years that the first place winner had beaten the second place winner by so many votes.

Years of commitments may come

It was clear from the start that a comfortable Democratic majority would remain in the lower house of Congress, and still does, even if Democrats performed slightly weaker than expected. The situation is worse for them in the Senate. There’s still a place where votes are still counted, and in Georgia, both state senator seats are likely to be decided in a second round (it takes 50 percent to win, and small-party candidates have taken enough to not have it), but the reality is that Republicans have a much better chance of winning a majority in the Senate. And that means Joe Biden won’t have as much of a margin as he expected before the election.

Donald Trump screams fraud

Trump doesn’t seem like a good loser. After announcing his own victory on election night, he had spread Twitter for the past two days with hoaxes and conspiracy theories about Democratic election fraud and held a press conference that was so scandalous that even several of his own party colleagues They spoke: that this is already undermining the democratic institutional system, the election can be the result if all the votes are counted.

Of course, communication is only one thing, legal steps are much more important. The Trumps have challenged the counting process in various courts, but have so far rejected their requests or judges have ordered accountants to make only minor changes that do not affect the bottom line. Trump threatened to go to the Supreme Court, which now has a conservative 6: 3 majority. But analysts agree that with a slight difference in votes, where there really is a legal problem, justices can step in, a situation that is unlikely to accept what much of society would feel as electoral fraud.