World: Can Trump Drag America Into One Last War?

As January 3 approached, fears grew that Kasim Suleiman, the iconic commander of the Iranian elite formation al-Kudi, was carrying out some “commemorative” retaliation in Tehran on the first anniversary of the liquidation of United States, to which Washington was responding militarily. Tensions have only escalated further since then, with several analysts fearing a military showdown between the United States and Iran, even though the remarkable date of January 3 has passed without incident.

But by no means uneventful.

The head of the United States Department of Defense reversed his decision that day three days before repatriating the aircraft carrier Nimitz from the Persian Gulf to ease tensions. Military advisers to US Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller reportedly opposed Nimitz’s withdrawal. For weeks, the US military has been stepping up its efforts in various ways to deter Iran from “reckless actions.”

The Air Force, for example, has commanded B-52 heavy bombers in the region at least three times since mid-November. Machines capable of carrying nuclear bombs, launching missiles, and robotic planes also traveled hundreds of kilometers off the coast of Iran. The Navy announced for the first time in nearly a decade that a submarine equipped with cruise missiles had crossed the Gulf, accompanied by an Israeli submarine. And in recent months, the number of American soldiers in command in the broader region, primarily in the Gulf and Jordanian monarchies, has risen from 40 to 50,000.

The military demonstration in Washington was explained by US intelligence reports that Iran and its allies in the region, especially Iraqi Shiite militias, may be preparing to attack, The New York Times reported. In addition, they added that the Iranian military forces were put on alert. Of course, it has happened more than once in the past that US intelligence agencies have provided the US government with false information, either by mistake or on purpose, and we remember well the case of Vietnam or Iraq. In this case, however, Iran’s disposition may be understandable and true, as US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities since the lost presidential election on November 3. Additionally, in November, national security advisers allegedly dealt with the president with a “preemptive” coup.

But what could happen to the mind of Trump unable to digest his electoral defeat? Perhaps in the last days of his presidency, he wants to start a war against Iran to force his successor, Joe Bident, into a military conflict? Does this prevent the new government in Washington from taking the US back to the nuclear deal that Trump ended in 2018, while at the same time persuading Iran to comply with the 2015 deal? Trump vehemently opposed the deal, as did much of the Republican Party elite. But it was also Trump who, before and during his 2016 election, insisted that it was time to end the “never-ending wars” in the United States, referring primarily to Afghanistan. What kind of comprehensive strategy is it that, while Trump has reduced the number of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq and left Washington’s Kurdish allies in Syria, is stretching the rope with Iran to the extreme? Withdrawals by the countries in question do not serve America’s strategic interests at all, and much of Congress in Washington agreed, while a war with Iran could have unpredictable consequences.

Looking at the American events of the past few days, including the occupation of the Capitol, it is possible that Trump could do anything. But perhaps the chances of starting a war in the remaining days may be reduced by your own environment, discouraging you or resisting any crazy orders.

However, this may not be enough to “survive” the remaining days of Trump’s presidency, as Iran’s movements are also unpredictable. Even if there was no retaliation against Iran on January 3, the following day, Tehran’s leadership announced that it would begin enriching 20 percent uranium again at its facility called Fordo. Since Trump ended the nuclear deal, Tehran has violated the limits of the deal rather slowly, but so far only to a lesser extent: It has produced fissile material that is slightly cleaner than the 3.7 percent allowed and more than required. But with the move on January 4, it had already exceeded the restrictions much more harshly, since it could not carry out any activity in Fordo, significantly increased the purity of the fissile material, and started enrichment centrifuges, much more modern than allowed. .

What’s more, Tehran has also announced that it produces 120 kilograms of uranium at 20 percent a year, which is half the amount needed for a nuclear charge if it is further enriched to a cleaner level of 90 percent. Moderate Iranian President Hassan Rohani said he was required by law to act. Tehran’s hard-line parliament passed the law after the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of the Persian-majority state’s secret nuclear program, in a mysterious assassination near Tehran in late November.

The cows of Iran are playing with fire and the question is why? Trump’s rejection of the nuclear deal reinforced the hardliners camp in their belief that the United States could not be trusted. And while the Iranian economy has declined enormously due to US sanctions in 2018, and restrictions on the coronavirus epidemic, it has also shown astonishing resilience. However, social dissatisfaction is on the rise, as demonstrated by the demonstrations of recent years. Iran’s strategic goal, then, is to end US sanctions, which are harmful not only in and of themselves, but also because they punish all companies and countries that cooperate, do business or trade with Iran.

Tehran’s dilemma is how to get the best deal. Referring to US intelligence analysis, The Economist in London says nothing less that Iran does not really want an atomic bomb and has removed much of the military elements from its nuclear program since 2003. According to this line of thinking, the Iranian leadership is raising the stakes simply to make as many concessions as possible to the new US government. Biden indicated that he would return to the nuclear negotiation, but on new terms. For example, Tehran would have to comply with the agreement again and, as a new element, Iran’s ballistic missile program would be on the agenda. But the latter is the point Iran does not want to argue at all, as it would give up one of its most important triumphs. With his missiles, he can keep his opponents in the region at bay, as he demonstrated in 2019, when he temporarily paralyzed half of the kingdom’s oil production with an attack on a Saudi oil facility.

Recently, Iran reported footage of the Revolutionary Guard placing strategic missiles and launchers in underground bases near the shores of the Persian Gulf. The threatening announcement also said the missiles had a range of hundreds of kilometers, were extremely accurate, and could also eliminate electronic interference. While this may even seem like an exaggeration, it would be a shame to underestimate Iran’s military capabilities. And for that again, Washington could only be awakened by the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia. Drones were also deployed into action, and the attack was carried out in such a way that the Saudi air defenses simply could not respond. Therefore, the Biden government is also increasingly concerned about drones in Iran.

The Trump administration has already done so much damage to Iranian politics that Biden will not have an easy task even if there is no military conflict by January 20. The Arab-Israeli reconciliation, which is commendable in itself, is due in large part to the Iranian threat. Israel and the Sunni Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, oppose bringing the Iran nuclear deal to life and appear willing to do much to prevent it. Behind Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, Israel is suspected by many, and the secret but leaked Israeli-Saudi summit between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Saudi heir to the throne is also a notable sign for Biden.

Qatar, which was excommunicated in 2017 partly because of its ties to Iran, was rehabilitated the other day by Saudi Arabia and its allies, lifting border barriers, a diplomatic embargo. And although the reconciliation is more symbolic, given that Qatar has barely renounced its relations with Iran, the declaration of unity of the Arab monarchies in the Gulf is another success of the anti-Iranian diplomacy of the Trump administration.

In a chaotic situation, one spark may be enough to set the area on fire. Furthermore, the fate of peace or war between the United States and Iran depends not only on the two parties, but also on America’s allies in the Middle East.