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Over the past year, Vladimir Putin also threw two major stones into the stagnant waters of Russian politics, making the issue of succession topical in the eyes of some.
One of them is a far-reaching constitutional reform announced by the Russian president in his inaugural speech last January. The project has several economic, social and governmental implications. Following Putin’s speech, the Russian government resigned along with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The provisions of the constitutional reform were finally approved last March and a referendum was held on the matter in the summer.
One of the biggest changes in the presidency was that, from now on, someone could be president for up to two terms and could not return to a third term after an interruption. This closes a loophole that Putin had already exploited once between 2008 and 2012 when he handed over the presidency to Dmitry Medvedev for four years due to constitutional restrictions.
However, when this door closed, another one opened.
Under the new rules, Putin’s previous presidential terms will not be taken into account, so the president could be re-elected for up to two terms. Since the constitutional reform also extended the president’s term to 6 years, it has in principle made it possible for Vladimir Putin, now 68, to remain in power until 2036.
The president did not comment on his criticism, but said he does not support the practice of the Soviet era, when the first people in the state practically led the country to their deaths.
Putin system mechanics
The fact that Putin has been at the forefront of Russian politics for more than 22 years is the result of several factors. When he took over the presidency from his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, it is no exaggeration to say that there were wild Western states in the country. Russia’s key resources were in the hands of competing oligarchs, and central power collapsed to such an extent after the disintegration of the Soviet Union that it provided a breeding ground for corruption and the dispersal of state wealth.
As the Foreign Policy analysis points out, Putin, in fact, did not eliminate corruption, but instead placed the sovereignty and power of the state above all other territories, compromising with the oligarchs. Containing corruption and rising oil prices in the 2000s led to a significant economic recovery in the country, which laid the foundation for Vladimir Putin’s popularity and legitimized his power. The improvement in economic indicators has allowed Russia to become more active on the foreign policy scene.
It is very likely that he also intends to prepare for Putin’s possible departure in such a way as not to provoke the resurgence of the well-known “turbulent times” in Russian history, when the state is so weakened that it cannot perform its tasks. basic. Chores.
This has already happened several times under a weak tsar, but the period between the fall of the tsarist system and the strengthening of the Soviet Union, or even the Yeltsin years, can be cited as an example.
This intention may be supported by various provisions of the aforementioned constitutional reform. For example, the powers of both houses of the Russian legislature have been strengthened, but the role of the Security Council, which acts as an advisory body to the President, has also increased.
Putin probably wants to simultaneously strengthen the institutional system to keep the central power stable, but not as attached to a single person as before.
However, the truth is that until now the president has not been the only one who decides important questions of foreign and domestic policy. These decisions are made in conjunction with a group of individuals who hold senior positions in the military and intelligence services, as well as at the corporate and provincial levels.
The other factor that may be of utmost importance to Putin in the transfer of power is that someone loyal to him follows him in the presidency.
In doing so, he seeks to prevent his political legacy from being denied or interrupted by a potential successor. In this regard, there are several examples from Russian history: the Bolshevik revolution shattered Tsarism, Khrushchev dismantled Stalin’s personal cult, Yeltsin abolished the Soviet Union, which Gorbachev wanted to preserve at all costs, but Putin himself opposed the reformist Yeltsin. .
Who can be Putin’s successor?
Position struggles within the Russian political leadership have always been difficult to trace. In Soviet times, there was even a special field of science called cremalinology, which tried to decipher the internal dynamics of the Soviet upper circles from words and gestures behind closed doors. He returned to this tradition in his analysis of Politico, which lists possible successor candidates.
- Mikhail Misustin, the Prime Minister
After Medvedev’s resignation in January last year, Russian President Mikhail Misustin was appointed prime minister. The hitherto widely unknown politician previously headed the Russian tax office and is primarily responsible for the digitization of the Russian tax system. He met Putin during a joint hockey event, the sporting events of which have in recent years become the favorite meeting place of the Russian elite.
Misustinin has at 53 the best period of his career and it also maintains good relations with the Russian defense forces and the bureaucratic layer, mainly for his years as head of the tax office. In this sense, many compare him to Putin himself.
However, it can be harmful to you. Missustin, that the position of prime minister In Russia (unlike the president) traditionally it has been the main target of criticism within the ruling party and the population. Just think of Dmitry Medvedev, whose popularity plummeted from 64% to 37% after eight years in office.
Many believe that Misustin was appointed prime minister only for practical reasons so that Medvedev, who had just been named Putin’s deputy, could return to the presidency.
Of course, Medvedev’s name may also emerge as a possible Putin successor, but due to his extremely low popularity, this is less likely.
- Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor
Many say that the current mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, 61, is also among the candidates. The former governor of the Tyumen region is considered by many to be one of the most influential politicians in the country. and previously he also held important government posts under Putin.
He says that Russia is far from the Russian region, has the largest budget, and that a series of spectacular investments have been made in the city during its bourgeoisie. He is also a popular politician outside of Moscow and enjoys Putin’s trust. However, an important theme in his election as president is that if he follows Putin’s line, the Kremlin should find a like-minded mayor to head the capital, where anti-regime voices are growing louder.
- Sergei Sojgu, Minister of Defense
The only politician who It can show popularity indicators close to Putin., Defense Minister Sergei Sojgu. Sojgu emerged from a modest line as a communist party official in the construction industry. And after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it helped keep the separatist Caucasian regions in Moscow’s sphere of interest.
He gained great popularity as an effective minister in the effective treatment of various natural disasters and emergencies, but he was also governor of the Moscow region for a short time. He has held the post of Defense Minister since 2012, and his name includes the modernization of the Russian army.
Sojgu is close to Putin, as evidenced by the fact that they regularly vacation together. Surprisingly, however, it is precisely his popularity and influence that can work against him.Whereas there are few guarantees that he will remain loyal to Putin until the transfer of power, because they are considered too self-propelled.
Naturally It may also be that, like Putin’s predecessor, he chooses a successor from among the state bureaucrats.. Among the contenders is Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, who previously ran a state oil company called Rosnyftty and shares Putin’s views on foreign policy.
Also worth mentioning is Deputy Prime Minister Marat Hushnullin, Vladimir Megyinsky, who was Putin’s former ultra-conservative Minister of Culture and Attorney General Igor Krasnov.
Recently, many have come to realize that Putin appointed various members of his former bodyguard as governors, prompting several to speculate whether the designated successor is among them.
Among the odds are Alexei Gyumin, Dmitry Mironov, Sergei Morozov and Yevgeny Zinichev. What all four have in common is that they are absolutely loyal to Putin. However, it is highly doubtful that they are suitable for the task., since both Morozov and Zinichev resigned as governors a few months after their appointment.
Storm clouds on the horizon
However, it is not only questionable who will be Putin’s successor, but also what will be the fate of Putinism in the coming years. The Yuri Levada Independent Analysis Center has been measuring the president’s popularity for years. The following figure shows well the evolution of the popularity of the president based on the decisions he makes.
The graph shows the rise in popularity of the president in the 2000s, when rising oil prices allowed the Russian economy to register significant growth. The economic crisis and falling oil prices, by contrast, have greatly impaired his judgment, followed by a strong boom in 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea.
However, patriotic sentiments have subsided as a result of the economic sanctions imposed by the annexation of the peninsula and the economic problems experienced in recent years, which have also left their mark on popularity indicators. Raising the retirement age in 2018, for example, sparked widespread dissatisfaction and disrupted Putin’s popularity. What’s more Foreign perception of Russia, especially in the eyes of Western countries, is at a low point, which was greatly aggravated by the poisoning and imprisonment of Alexei Navalny, leader of the opposition. THE Unprecedented wave of protests against the regime spreads across the country over the Navalny case, which is compounded by problems stemming from the country’s highly commodity-oriented economic structure, imposed sanctions and the recent crackdown on corruption by Russian leaders.
IF YOU CAN WITNESS A CHANGE ANYWHERE IN RUSSIA, THEN THE QUESTION OF IF YOU FOLLOW VLAGYIMIR PUTYINT IN THE PRESIDENT’S CHAIR SHOULD HAVE BEEN SINGLE
Cover Image Source: Mikhail Svetlov / Getty Images
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