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He accurately predicted the weakening of the forint this year, as the exchange rate has not yet reached 375, but has gone to 370. Monday’s Hungarian veto can be seen as a step that could even call into question our membership of the EU long term. Do you see it that way?
The Hungarian and Polish vetoes clearly serve the purpose of the two Member States avoiding the application of the new rules and the rule of law built into the budget. For Hungary and Poland, the unanimity rule is an excellent tool to enforce their dual policy:
The two countries want to continue to enjoy the benefits of the EU, but do not ask for EU norms and democratic rules.
Has the possibility of Hungary finally leaving the European Union increased in recent months?
Yes, I think that Europe is at a crossroads. Brexit has opened the door wide, and it is not Hungary but the EU that needs to ask itself to what extent they want to maintain integration in the future.
If Hungary and Poland can prevent or delay the approval of the budget, it could jeopardize the continued existence of the Union.
In this case, I believe that the proceedings against the two Member States will be accelerated under Article 7 of the Treaty.
This is a classic trap of the 22 when the objectives and the Treaty of the Union are openly in disagreement with the regulation and the legal framework, so it is necessary to change the latter.
This can only be done by ultimately allowing Member States that have lifted a veto to withdraw.
Hungary and Poland are now playing that the Union does not want to take this risk, but I think that in the next year or two the economic situation may force Europe to change this.
Do you agree that the Hungarian and Polish vetoes could push the entire European integration into crisis?
It would be unfair to sew all integration problems around the necks of Hungarians and Poles, but with the notable decline in EU subsidies in recent years, it is clear that the two countries do not want to be part of the solution in their current political situation. . And in this situation, the protest will be used to improve your own financial situation.
What could be the solution in a post-veto stalemate?
The most important issue is the need for unanimity, something to start with. Ironically, however, it can only be changed unanimously, that is, by the vote of all the Member States. This is a trap that the founding fathers of the Union should have foreseen.
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