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Although the government reports on a map each morning how many people have been infected in each county since the epidemic broke out in March, this data is not really relevant as it does not show how many active cases there are in that region. We will show you what the map is:
It could easily be that the first wave was larger in one region of the country, but so far fewer patients have been registered in the second, so it is now less infected than the national average. However, this county “looks” worse than where there were very few cases in the first wave of the epidemic, but now the number of patients is growing rapidly.
Komárom-Esztergom p. Eg it does not look good with its 533 data, however, more than 300 cases were registered in the first wave. On the contrary, Baranya seems quite favorable with a total of 290 infected, although in the first half of August there were still less than 50 patients in total, which means that most of the patients were infected in the second wave. In other words, Baranya is no better than Komárom-Esztergom in terms of active cases in nominal terms. It is easy to see that this map does not have significant information content for the population.
Reporting the number of active cases (only sick) would bring much more information. However, there is no data in this regard, the only thing that is known is that there are just over 10,300 active infections in the country. As we showed yesterday, this figure is also quite inaccurate. If we accumulate data on newly registered cases, we would have to go back in time to mid-August to be able to approximate all the numbers of active cases. And we know that people have not been sick for that long.
Therefore, the portfolio pulled its own previous model calculations based on how many had been infected in the past two weeks. Thus, we counted 8,200 active infections, more than 2,000 less than the official information. Here is the map:
In the countries of the region, the active period lasts about two weeks in one case, so this approach seems quite good. At the same time, we also assume that the underdetection rate is uniform within the country.
We now present three maps that represent 10, 15 and 20 times underdetection, and show the proportion of infected people active in society in proportion to the above limitations. The most likely scenario in the current stage of the epidemic is the latter, that is, the epidemic will find every 20 patients.
With 10 times without being detected:
With fifteen times without being detected:
Twenty times underdetection:
In other words, if the latest map gets closer to reality, 4 out of 100 people in Budapest are simply infected. However, as we move forward in time, the epidemic situation in Hungary becomes increasingly uncertain.
Cover image: Getty Images
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