[ad_1]
However, the situation in the media market is constantly changing: if you want to support quality business journalism and want to be part of the Portfolio community, subscribe to Portfolio Signature articles. Know more
In this article, I present my demographic projections through 2051, focusing on territorial differences within the country. In addition to presenting possible national and regional scenarios, I also pay special attention to changes in the age structure and what changes in an unforeseen event such as the current epidemic situation can cause in these processes.
The need to model and predict demographic processes goes back a long time and consequently researchers have a wide range of possible theoretical approaches and methodologies. A central element of the methodology I developed is agent-based modeling, which allowed me to integrate multiple approaches, such as the cohort component method, value expectation, and life trajectory theory, or the attractive-repulsive model of Read. The basic units of agent-based simulation are the individual actors or agents who make decisions according to given rules of behavior and interact with each other and with their environment. The created agents simulate the individuals of the Hungarian resident population. These actors can participate in or suffer the natural events of motherhood and death, as well as four events of migratory life. The probability of this happening is influenced by your age, sex, and the geographic and socioeconomic situation of your settlement. The modeled migratory life events include four types of domestic migration that can be clearly distinguished on the basis of starting points, destination areas, and participating social groups:
- migration for study purposes,
- labor migration,
- suburbanization of metropolitan centers to the ring of agglomeration,
- and the welfare of migration to areas with a high quality of life due to the natural environment.
During modeling, I developed a total of 33 scenarios. These include assumptions about different fertility and mortality rates, assumptions about different climatic changes, and expectations about different socioeconomic changes. The set of scenarios called Current Trends assumes the continuation of socioeconomic trends in 2010, while the Paradigm Shift scenarios anticipate significant changes in socioeconomic conditions at the time of modeling, including the rapid spread of atypical forms of employment and systems. autonomous transport.
National results of the forward calculation
By the concept of demographic drive, we describe the phenomenon that the change in age group size caused by previous demographic events, even in the case of a fertility change, largely determines the demographic view. Therefore, on the basis of past trends and established fertility assumptions, it is not surprising that the national trend of population decline persists in all scenarios used in the model. However, there are significant differences between the results of each scenario: while the worst is based on low scenarios, which assume a global fertility slightly lower than the current value and an increase in life expectancy in line with current trends.
Hungary’s population would be reduced to 8,342,000 by 2051, while the execution of the more optimistic base and high scenarios would result in a population of 8,747,000 and 9,138,000, respectively.
In addition to the number of the resident population, significant changes are also expected in its age composition. Figure 2 shows that for the three scenarios, the age tree took the form of a typical urn of dwindling societies. The differences in the number of children in the population expected for 2051 are relatively small between the different scenarios, while the differences are much more significant in the case of the population aged 65 and over. This is due to the low number of those who are of childbearing age and those who have already been born and will reach childbearing age in the future, so that the increase in life expectancy during the model run had a much greater effect on future development of the population. The old-age dependency ratio for the number of people over 65 compared to those aged 15 to 64 will increase significantly in all scenarios, from the current 25% to 61-65%.
Territorial results of the forecast
The result of running the Current Trends scenarios, which assume the continuation of the socio-economic trends of the last decade, will be that migration trends will be determined mainly by the dual efforts of the capital and, secondly, by providing a livable living environment at regional centers. As a result, the processes of natural population movement and migratory movement together will lead to a greater concentration of the population (Figure 3).
It can be clearly seen that, in addition to the basic assumptions of natural movement, the population of the Budapest agglomeration zone, which extends to Székesfehérvár and Tatabánya, is expected to grow in the next 40 years, and even in the inner ring of the agglomeration of Budapest.
Due to welfare migration trends, the demographic prospects in the Balaton Highlands and in some parts of the North Central Mountains are also better than average, also contributing to the more favorable age structure and growth. of the population higher than the national. In some regional centers and their immediate surroundings, modest growth and near stagnation can be expected, However, a large part of the Southern Great Plain is expected to face significant population loss. In some districts of the Great Plain (for example, the district of Bácsalmási) in 2051 only 60% of the population of 2011 will live.
In the scenarios containing different regional climate models, compared to the scenarios that did not take into account the effect of climate change, there was a slight excess migration in the Balaton Highlands and in some parts of the North Central Mountains, while that the slight deterioration of the migratory balance occurred mainly in the Great Plain. On the contrary, the atypical forms of employment and the execution of paradigm shift scenarios assuming the proliferation of autonomous transport systems have already brought significant changes. The preconditions of the scenario helped the development of migration of well-being to settlements, often far from metropolitan centers, but with attractive natural environments. Outer edge. However, these gains were relatively concentrated and much of the rural periphery, despite the reversal of the trend, would still be characterized by migratory losses.
As we have seen in the national data, drastic changes are expected in the age distribution of the population. Although aging is also common at the district level, the process has large regional differences. The reasons for this are, on the one hand, the already existing differences in the initial state and the age-selective urban-rural migration processes. There are significant differences in the territorial differences of aging between the individual scenarios, and the assumptions of the Paradigm Shift scenarios lead to much larger regional differences than the Current Trends scenario. In the case of the version shown in Figure 4, the number of older people exceeded the number of active people in several districts, which will pose a serious sustainability challenge in these areas.
Final thoughts
Based on the results obtained, it is expected that the national trend of population decline will continue in the period until 2051, however, significant regional differences in the processes of population movement will have to be expected. The capital agglomeration area is expected to further increase its population, while most of the districts of the Southern Great Plain and Southern Transdanubia in particular have to face a radical decline in population.
Age-selective migration processes are also expected to lead to significant territorial disparities in the apparently inevitable aging of the population, the management of which will pose serious social challenges in the future.
The modeling and forecasting included only the natural movement of the population and the internal migratory movement, and did not take into account the effects of the international migratory movement. Therefore, the results obtained can be influenced by international migration processes in both a positive and negative sense. The development of natural population movements, especially fertility indicators, also depends on the population policy of the respective governments. The most favorable population scenario resulting in the population in moderate decline that is presented assumes a significant improvement in fertility and mortality rates and is likely to occur in the long term with a successful population policy.
Recent events also shed new light on the modeling results. While in the past the current Trending scenario seemed to have better prospects, work organization solutions forcefully introduced during the coronavirus could play a pioneering role in the broader spread of telecommuting. The main driver of this in the past was mainly the distrust of employers towards atypical work in Hungary, as well as the limited number of jobs that can be carried out in teleworking. This could lead to a demographic view similar to the Paradigm Shift scenarios: the spatial concentration of the population would be lower than currently projected, the spatial dispersion of the metropolitan agglomeration would increase, but the pressure on the inner ring would decrease and the attractiveness of some rural areas would improve significantly.
A detailed demographic modeling and forecasting study featured in the blog post was published in the fifth issue of Territorial Statistics in 2019.
Author’s thanks:
The XXI. Possibilities of complex modeling of the spatial socio-economic processes of the 19th century. PD 128372 was implemented with the support of the National Fund for Research, Development and Innovation, in financing the tender program PD_18.
The author
researcher at the KRTK Regional Research Institute.
Cover image: Getty Images
[ad_2]
