[ad_1]
Subscribe to the Epidemic Newsletter
We send you what you need to know about the epidemic every day of the week. Sign up and take care!
“Today in Hungary, no matter how many ventilators are available, it is completely unrealistic to estimate more than 3,000 intensive beds in patient care,” Péter Hegyi, president of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for Translational Medicine, said in a video conference last week. The upper limit of capacity is determined primarily by the number of intensive care nurses.
His performance on the mountain can be seen here:
The video conferencing team prepared professional materials on the epidemic for operational staff in the spring. The above finding was also described and sent to decision makers in April.
There are not enough nurses in so many beds
Hegyi says that in January the number of intensive beds in Hungary may have been around 1,000, one thousand nurses reached this capacity. Ideally, two sisters would climb onto a bed, this was still a piece at the beginning of the year. In April, the capacity of intensive beds increased to 2000, but not only did the number of nurses not double, it actually remained around 2000. According to press reports, there were subsequently 8,000 intensive care units, still for a number unchanged 2,000 nurses with specialized knowledge.
In fact, the ratio is even worse. Even before spring, the ratio was not ideal, with only 1.6 nurses receiving an intensive bed due to the shifts and rest days that followed. Which means that three sisters would be more ideal for a bed. That is, for 2,000 beds, ideally 6,000 nurses would be needed. (According to this calculation, for the 10,000 full beds mentioned last time by Orbán, 30,000 nurses would have to queue while there are 2,000). According to Hegyi, if the ideal ratio is reversed, there will be a huge loss of quality of care.
But the situation is even worse, because it is not possible to spend more than 8 hours in protective equipment against corona virus, FFP masks, because it already endangers the health of workers. If this were also taken into account, intensive care for coronavirus patients would ideally require 6 nurses per bed.
Although this was pointed out to operational staff on April 9, the end result was that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs bought 16,000 ventilators, safely, safely, for 300,000 million HUF, and the hospital supplier for about 2,500, 26,700 million. . In addition to the existing 2000.
No quick government action
Mountain covers a certain R number, which shows how many people an infected person transmits the virus. If there is no action, it is 2.5. This can be reduced by reducing the number of contacts. With the government moving swiftly in the spring and closing schools and then cracking down on more restrictive measures, healthcare has borne the burden.
Now that Mountain doesn’t see such swift action, there were no more serious government decisions that would cut back on contacts. However, in the spring in Italy, it was clear that if the spread of the epidemic reached a point, subsequent austerity measures taken late could not really be effective.
If the virus gets rid of it, it can be achieved very quickly, what happened in Italy or New York, that a large number of patients would have to be seen at one time. If this happens, some 2,500 beds could be exhausted in an extremely short time, up to three weeks, and from there, unfortunately, the death of patients will depend on the capacity of the intensive care unit.
According to Hegyi, austerity measures are crucial. The government must take steps to reduce contact numbers. If nothing happens, the capacity of the intensive bed is exhausted. Until there is a vaccine, and it won’t be now, you can’t stop the virus, you can only slow it down. Until then, he says, there will be more waves of epidemic.
To test, test, test
In addition to reducing the number of contacts, there is one more thing you can do to greatly reduce the number of new infections and the spread of the virus. This is a test. The mountain analysis shows that the number of tests is clearly related to the number of deaths. In countries where insufficient testing was done, mortality was significantly higher. “It could also be seen in spring, we also indicated that the measurement capacity should be multiplied. Some of this has happened, but it can also be seen now during the second wave that increasing measurement capabilities is still an existing problem, ”said the professor.
What can be done? Wear a mask indoors. In workplaces, contact communities should be as far apart as possible so that employees do not work at the same time, and as little mixing as possible should be produced. And try, try and try – suggested Mountain.
They are no longer asked
It was also revealed from the presentation that while there was a separate epidemiological committee in the spring that met with operational staff, “with very serious experts.” Until at least September 8, “decision makers did not indicate their need for this type of scientific data. We don’t know the reason for this, it may be that others are doing the data analysis now. We are very happy to try to help decision makers working at night, as before, if we have any questions. At the moment, for us, the decision-making mechanism is not in the second wave. Probably while health was the main topic in the spring, followed by education and the economy, the priorities may have changed, and it is mainly the latter that play a role.
[ad_2]
