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800,000 Older Vaccines Still Needed for the 2.5 Million Mark
Contrary to expectations, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said little about the plan for a gradual opening. According to Gergely Gulyás yesterday, it seemed that the government already had a plan developed to the extent that it could relax at certain levels of social immunity (see our calculations here). By comparison, the prime minister only said that The reopening plan is already being developed, it could be announced in days, the first step of which could be taken when the number of protected people reaches 2.5 million, so that all those registered over 65 years of age receive the vaccine.
According to the latest version of the often-changing vaccination schedule, vaccinated people over 60 years of age can get vaccinated at Easter. By comparison, a 65-year-old age limit has now been announced, further complicating the picture, but based on the different scattered sub-data, we can calculate that approx. There are 800,000 vaccinations for the elderly registered. With their inoculation, we are just reaching the 2.5 million circle.
From now on, the big question is what will be the number of vaccines that can already be administered at home and the vaccination capacity that it will allow for the next few weeks. Vaccination capacities for weeks show that if there is enough vaccine to administer, which has already been approved by the National Center for Public Health, the system based on GPs and hospital vaccines can typically administer 40-60 thousand doses per day for the first time. (7-day moving average), but there are days when 80-110,000 doses are successful.
As Viktor Orbán answered a question this morning that they would not change the vaccination system for the time being, that is, only thousands more vaccination points would be designated after there was enough vaccine to administer, so The route of vaccination in the next few weeks really only depends on the number of vaccines that can be administered.
In the figure below, we have flexibly adjusted the daily vaccination rate to our latest vaccine supply estimate (for example, 40-50 thousand doses per day for a few days, then 60-80 thousand doses temporarily up to 120 thousand doses per day when they are larger shipments are received to deliver the available supply as soon as possible).) and we obtained that In April, the number of people getting vaccinated for the first time will exceed the targets set by the head of government. (2.5 million, 3 million, 3.5 million, then 4 million).
Based on the graph above, we tabulated the days for which the first vaccination figures of 2.5 million, 3 million, 3.5 million and 4 million were available, and we also analyzed the number of adults within the adult population (7.8 million). we see certain inoculation ratios available. In international experience, epidemic management pays more attention to protection rates than to nominal levels.
According to our calculations, the date of April 7 has come out for the group of 2.5 million vaccinated, while we see the vaccination rate of 25% already available for March 29.
Since the prime minister said only nominal numbers, Despite the date of March 29, we do not consider it realistic to open before Easter. This There are many reasons:
- On the one hand, despite the tightening that took effect a week and a half ago, recent epidemiological data are worrying. The third wave of the epidemic appears to be sweeping through, the abrupt phase of the epidemic was mentioned in today’s briefing by operational staff, and János Szlávik, head of the infectology department at South Pest Central Hospital, said today that if the numbers are do not improve, a greater tightening is not ruled out.
- On the other hand, Viktor Orbán said in the morning that Easter was “a particularly risky time” due to the increase in contact numbers due to travel and irrigation, so the holiday “should be treated separately.”
What first opening steps are possible?
If epidemiological data for next week indicate that the third wave has slowed down, the first cautious opening step may already occur from the week after Easter. This may be the fact that as of April 7 children can return to schools and kindergartens according to the plans communicated today, but it may also be that those with a protection certificate are subject to different rules than others.
In an interview this morning, the Prime Minister has already referred to these possibilities, as he said, for example:
65% of the participants in the national consultation said that the gradual opening means that those who have a security certificate will already be exempt from certain restrictions and restrictions.
A few weeks ago, it was already noticeable in one of the Facebook videos that Viktor Orbán marked when completing the online consultation that would grant an exemption from the curfew from 20 to 5 in the morning for those who have been vaccinated.
Regarding the protection certificate, he drew attention to the fact that if someone has contracted the disease covertly, but does a test in a laboratory and detects the antibody in their body, they can also get a protection certificate. Then he literally said:
I would also recommend it to everyone, because in the open and restart plan, based on the query, there will be a period when certain services can be used with a security certificate.
During the services he presumably referred to the possibility of using the outside of the restaurants / cafes (terraces) or even the accommodation.
Still, the Prime Minister’s signals have to do with increasing the propensity to vaccinate and encouraging those who are reluctant to get vaccinated to test the antibody on their bodies on their own, so that they will be able to live more and more freely.
Cover image source: Viktor Orbán’s Facebook page, image taken during the radio interview on March 19, 2021.
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