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A little assessment of the situation.
According to the report on Friday morning, the number of people vaccinated against the coronavirus in Hungary is almost 522 thousand, and the second dose was given to 241 thousand. A total of 368,000 people are expected to be vaccinated by March 4, using Chinese and Russian vaccines received in large numbers these days, so that by the middle of next week, the number of people receiving the first vaccine could rise to 838,000. All of this means that vaccination rates of 5.3% (first) and 2.4% (second), respectively, could rise significantly next week.
The increasing rate of vaccination is also shown in the figure below, and the 7-day moving average is expected to increase to around 50,000, taking into account the 368,000 vaccinations planned in one week. However, operational staff are constantly looking at how the vaccination schedule could be sped up even further (for example, the time between the first and second doses of AstraZeneca vaccine so that as many people as possible can receive the first dose as soon as possible ) and Minister Gergely Gulyás He also said yesterday that they calculated that we could vaccinate 1 million people in a weekend. The latter would certainly require a more serious logistical reorganization, because in addition to some important vaccination points, an increase in the vaccination strategy based on the GP system could soon reach its daily ceiling.
But what is this rate sufficient to open the economy?
The calculation of the social circle potentially protected against the epidemic (immune) must take into account not only those who have already been vaccinated, but also those who have been confirmed to have contracted the disease in the last 6 months. In fact, we should also consider those who contracted the disease covertly in the last six months, but their number is impossible to tell. Some estimates say a multiplier of 5 to 10 times, and in the future design of the opening, the result of a second large sample test may take into account this range of up to 2 to 4 million, but now we will ignore this circle. when estimating the immune circle.
However, with regard to immunity, it should also be noted that it does not develop immediately after the first vaccination, but weeks later. Due to the different ways that vaccines work, we simplify our model assuming that a relatively high degree of protection can be achieved 3 weeks after the first vaccination.
Thus, the method of calculating how many people have been confirmed to have the disease in the last 6 months (414 thousand people) and how many have already received their first vaccine 3 weeks ago (247 thousand) means that at least 661 thousand people can be considered currently immune against coronavirus. This means that It is very likely that you will not spread the epidemic from the beginning and even if you do get the infection again, you will not become a patient with severe symptoms. This circle is therefore 6.7% of Hungarian society.
Protection against the epidemic will be provided by vaccinating the widest possible population, which is expected to reduce the number of contacts associated with the infection to such an extent that it suppresses the spread of the virus. In this context, we have updated our estimates of vaccines available at home. We have incorporated into it all the updated information that has been discussed in government communications or not indications of western manufacturers (pessimistic for AstraZeneca, which is 50% below the level of its commitments in the second quarter, which the company is expected to incorporate in the third quarter, which the CEO himself acknowledged yesterday). During the EP hearing). based on all these
As far as we know, a sufficient supply of vaccines (2 doses per person) may reach the country in early and mid-July to vaccinate the entire Hungarian population.
Based on the above figure, the expected total vaccine supply in Hungary may actually follow exactly the path traced by the operational strain: By Easter, in early April, everyone who is currently registered for the vaccine will be able to do so: according to yesterday’s data, 2.46 million people, this morning Prime Minister Viktor Orbán mentioned a band of 2.5-2 ,6 millions.
The figure also shows that the acceleration phase of vaccination is expected from the second half of April. This There are two main reasons
- By the end of April, the Russians must deliver the amount of 1 million they pledged (we expected an increase in deliveries according to the schedule announced in the government communication)
- By the end of May, the Chinese will also have to deliver enough rations for 2.5 million people and, according to a recent government signal, most of this (enough for 1.75 million people) will be delivered by the Chinese only in May, the last month of the 4-month contract.
As can be seen: Depending on the volume of vaccine received, vaccination could theoretically reach the so-called minimum threshold of 60% for vaccination by mid-May.
However, from the theoretically possible graft trajectory the practice, that is, the increase in the proportion of the population that can be considered actually protected will be significantly different There may be several reasons (except for the first administration of doses received for at least 1-2 weeks for logistical reasons):
- Typically the second is currently given 3 weeks after the first vaccination, but at AstraZeneca, for example, the British vaccinate on a 12-week cycle, and the recent sign is that the Hungarian authorities may move in this direction. Therefore, the time between the two vaccinations may increase at home due to the pressure of the epidemic, while the manufacturers can only guarantee complete protection 1-2 weeks after the second dose. We assume that after the third wave eases, the government will focus on the number of people who have already undergone the first vaccination when planning to reopen.. Thus, according to a looser interpretation, those who have already received their first vaccination at that time will be considered protected at that time, but according to a stricter interpretation, only those who have received their first vaccination 3 weeks before that day will be considered. some of the following scenarios).
- The Portfolio’s own survey added this morning also showed, among other surveys, that the so-called There is a growing public rejection of “oriental vaccines”. Thus, as one of the scenarios, we also indicate that How would the increase in vaccination unfold if only half of all Russian and Chinese vaccines that are already available at home could be given in the first vaccination? Until April, there is not a big difference between half (orange line) and full administration (blue line) of Russian and Chinese vaccines, because large volumes of these two vaccines only arrive from April to May anyway. But even taking this into account, there is no more serious division between the two scenarios, that is, generally The issue of public attitudes towards oriental vaccines does not substantially move the opening time horizon. (What makes this important, however, is the government’s epidemic management tactics: As far as we know, the government wants to treat the third wave not with additional closures, but with the vaccine, and it can make a big difference in a week or two, as the epidemic grows stronger.)
- As for calculating the circle that can be considered protected and planning the opening, we must not forget those who have had the disease in the previous 6 months. We also made an estimate for this circle and this is also shown in the figure below, more specifically added to each scenario, as this circle is kind of a starting point for estimating the protected circle.
In general, the figure below is made so that we went from the narrowest protected circle (infected in the last 6 months) to the theoretically possible maximum vaccination (immediate full delivery of the theoretical vaccine supply) and in the meantime we examine what would happen if the Hungarian population accepted only half or all of the Chinese and Russian vaccines available for the first vaccination. At the time of the first vaccination, 3 weeks were added to estimate the development of protection. Then we also looked at how we would look at the time of the first vaccination (omitting the 3 week time frame, black line), then when the protégé circle would develop, and finally we would plot the theoretical supply of the vaccine.
Based on this, we think that the realistic trajectory of protection will be around the orange-blue line, that is, at the beginning of April the circle of protected may be only around 15% (first vaccination + 3 weeks), then By the beginning of May, it can rise to 25-30%, then rise to 40-45% in early June.
Gergely Gulyás said Thursday: 3 million people over 60 years in Hungary and in addition to them there are a few hundred thousand more vulnerable people, that is At least 3 million vaccines must be given to protect those at risk. This suggests that the government must definitely achieve its protection before it opens the economy to society at large.
According to our calculations, this large circle of 3 million vaccinated people (black line) will be available at the end of April, that is, from the end of April, it would be realistic to open the economy realistically as soon as we know.
However, if we also take into account that it takes at least 3-5 weeks after the first vaccination for full protection to develop in the endangered population, We are already there that the substantive opening does not seem realistic before the second half of May.
Our calculations also indicate that
Given that even the first vaccination of an endangered circle will take at least until the end of April, sadly from this direction (rapid and significant increase in vaccination) we cannot really expect that it alone will suppress the epidemic in the coming weeks.
Mass vaccination of the youngest and most mobile strata before May is unrealistic and until then the epidemic is not “waiting”, but unfortunately it can infect many young and middle-aged in the short term. Therefore, it also reinforces our conclusion today that the current outbreak of the epidemic cannot be quelled by level restrictions, and if the vaccination process follows the information now known, it is very likely that, unfortunately, the means of closure will have to be reached again. Good references to this have already been made in this morning’s interview with the Prime Minister and in the morning’s briefing of operational staff.
Cover Image Source: Orsi Ajpek / Getty Images
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