[ad_1]
As part of our new promotion, annual SIGNATURE subscriptions purchased between March 31 and April 9 can now be purchased at a 40% discount for HUF 18,000. This gives you access to the latest news, key analysis, and exclusive content at a much better price. Plus, you can even support the production of quality inexpensive content. Click here for more details.
Multi-stage opening without timers
“Openness is a misleading term,” Viktor Orbán chilled at the beginning of the interview on Wednesday night, citing that infection rates remain very high and that after reaching 2.5 million people who were vaccinated for the first time Once in the week after Easter, it’s actually only March 8. They are withdrawing from the epidemiological restrictions that have been in force since then (shops open by the square meter while the start of the exit restriction is postponed until 10 pm The Prime Minister still considers it realistic to reopen educational institutions on April 19 and later Regarding the second opening phase, all he said without a time limit was that “jobs must be given” to hotels and restaurants, that is, their opening could come.
After that, “they can get from the third to the fourth stage”, but the prime minister has not yet wanted to talk about these initial steps because “he is too opposed to the high infection rates and the number of vaccines.” He only promised that “Always one week before the next step”, the government and operational personnel will inform the public, Since “does not happen overnight” is the resumption of any business social activity, “people need to know in advance to be able to plan things.”
On the subject of the vaccine, the prime minister also said some specific numbers, saying it was “available to 2 million 11,000 people today” for the vaccine, but he was probably thinking of those vaccinated for the first time, since that was exactly the counter. from yesterday. That’s why the additional numbers you said (“We will have 2 million 356 thousand vaccines by April 4”, “we will have 4 million 121 thousand vaccines at the beginning of May”, “we will have 7 million vaccines available by the end of May, beginning of June”) will be interpreted as the number of people expected to receive the first vaccine at that time. By reporting these numbers, you are also helping business and financial decision makers plan the anticipated schedule for the opening, and we are trying to contribute to this with the following calculations.
When can we get vaccinated?
Because the head of government and for round numbers (2 million, 4 million, 7 million first vaccinated) apparently has a power of influence to design the aperture, so we update our estimate of the model, when each opening “milestone” could be reached. For this, we take into account that
- exactly how many vaccines arrived in Hungary on Tuesday night,
- the vaccination rate indicated by the operational personnel for the vaccination of people over 65 years of age and teachers as of April 10,
- By Wednesday, how many people had been vaccinated for the first time.
As can be seen in the following table: as of Tuesday night 4.33 million doses of vaccine had arrived in Hungary, enough for 2.417 million people, while by Wednesday “only” 2 million 11 thousand people had been vaccinated. The reason for this difference is that the received Chinese and Russian vaccines must be tested by the National Center for Public Health (NCU) on consignment and should only be delivered after vaccination. In the last column of the table, we see a fairly high rate for the Russian vaccine (55%), but it is important to know that the manufacturer must calculate the full dose of 2 million Sputnik before April 22 under the 3 month contract. , then the Russians, in fact, are behind schedule. The largest batch of the Chinese vaccine (3.5 million doses) will arrive between mid-May and mid-June, and this will be a key factor in the ability to vaccinate rapidly at that time.
In the case of EU vaccines, products are distributed pro rata among the population and delivery rates remain low due to longer-term contracts. Otherwise, Pfizer / BioNtech and Moderna are performing at the contractual rate, however, much less came from the AstraZeneca vaccine, The main reason for this may be that the British-Swedish manufacturer prefers to serve the British market, in violation of its obligations to the EU and therefore to Hungary (Janssen may arrive in Hungary from the second half of April as soon).
There could be 4 million vaccinated in a month
According to the latest information on the vaccination plan, teachers and other employees of educational institutions are now vaccinated between Thursday and Saturday and next Thursday-Saturday, so it is expected that the calculation of the first vaccination limit of 2, 5 million people reached April 11. that the government is linking the first steps of the opening (tightening of the curfew, opening of stores per square meter, opening of educational institutions as of April 19).
As described based on available vaccine offers, thereafter the vaccination limit of 3 and then 4 million also appears to be available at a rapid rate. The latter, based on our current knowledge, will be put on April 26, that is
In a month, the current vaccination of 2 million could double, which is in line with what Viktor Orbán indicated in the interview.
When will round vaccination numbers be available?
We also estimate the trajectory along which the vaccination process in Hungary could advance and, as shown in the following table: by mid-May, 6 million had been vaccinated also seems available and we see that the 7 million mark mentioned by Viktor Orbán as available on May 27, he did it “at the end of May, at the beginning of June.”
The big question is, of course, when and at what rate will the 3.7 million registration number increase on Tuesday, but the message from last week’s CSO survey is once again that the willingness to vaccinate is steadily increasing to 52%. of people definitely get vaccinated, and perhaps another 21%. Together the two give a 73% camp and, as you can see at the bottom of our estimate table: a vaccination limit of 70% within the adult population (so far only they will be vaccinated) will also be available on May 12.
A careful and prolonged opening is expected.
The above in principle would also allow an ambitious path of economic-institutional opening, but the British and American examples also show the importance of caution, gradualism, because even with a relatively high graft, a fourth wave can form; In America, unfortunately, it started.
Presumably this is why the Prime Minister has yet to say specific opening plans, linked to specific vaccination milestones, because You don’t want to tie your hands to dates and plans that anchor those expectations. He only promised that there would be information a week before the steps so that everyone could prepare (the UK opening strategy includes a similar element: they take a five-week break between each opening phase, during which data is collected for four weeks; and in the fifth week they analyze and decide if they can move on to the next phase).
Overall, the head of government interview and the expected vaccination track record in Hungary suggest that
after the opening of schools on April 19, another relaxation step (e.g. opening of restaurants, hotels) based on 4-5 million vaccinations can be carried out in early May, then additional opening steps with 6-7 million vaccines towards the end of May and the beginning of June.
Incidentally, Human Resources Minister Miklós Kásler also spoke about the plan for a prudent and prolonged opening in an interview on Sunday (he detailed the opening at the end of May) and was also mentioned in an article by Magyar Nemzet yesterday. The latter specifically contemplated adapting the cautious British opening strategy at home. The opening of stores without restrictions would be possible from June 7, national holidays could be allowed from July 12 and the total lifting of epidemiological restrictions would be possible from August 16. This would also be in line with what the Prime Minister said at the end of the Wednesday night interview: a year ago, in February, we were optimistic in economic and demographic terms, and
we have to come back here, if not in one step, but surely late summer.
As indicated in the introduction, the vaccination route and the possibilities of opening that derive from it are increasingly clear, so the question of the current epidemic situation for the different vaccination milestones, that is, if it is found Among those who have not yet been vaccinated, it will become increasingly important. There is still the possibility that the epidemic will intensify again.
Cover image source: MTI / György Varga. Pécs cityscape in the background of a blossoming almond branch on March 3, 2021.
[ad_2]
