Trump taps into Biden’s translation: how do we find ourselves, what to look for in the most exciting presidential election of all time?

At dawn in Hungarian time, it seemed that after Biden’s dominance initially seen (presumably caused by the early counting of votes from pre-received letters), the proportion of votes cast by Trump had steadily increased. And immediately after the large-scale victories in Florida, Ohio, and Texas, the mood for the 2016 election returned: Trump still won Florida and then all the battlefield states in a row. In the early Hungarian era, he was able to secure victory in all major battlefield states except Arizona: Texas, Florida, Ohio, but he also had significant advantages in North Carolina and the northern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. .

It was also quite obvious that the polls again significantly under-detected Trump, for example, in Florida the polls were more than 6 and in Ohio almost 8 percentage points incorrect.

In the early morning, most of the votes cast in person were counted in Hungarian time, a superior advantage for Trump. Given that it had certainly won several states where the Bident was measured in the first place, we could conclude that they might have been underestimated in other Member States as in 2016, and it had a huge advantage in those Member States. Of the battlefield states, only Arizona had a chance to win. We also didn’t necessarily expect the card votes to substantially reverse the competition, because that didn’t help Biden in Florida, Texas or Ohio, either.

Then came the turn

In Biden’s morning speech, he didn’t look like he was expecting a defeat, although his chances were very slim, the bookies were also expecting a clear Trump victory and the markets were also setting prices for the Republican president to resume, and the president he simply announced that he had won. However, mathematically, Biden still had many chances to win at the time.

And the turn came. Early in the morning in Hungarian time, the share in Georgia jumped above 90% and at the same time, the 8% point difference (Trump’s lead) melted to 2.2 percentage points. This was the first clear sign that a vote could reverse the outcome of an election in a Member State. Then, during the day, Biden continued to catch up with Trump in the traditionally Democratic northern states, and in the afternoon he took the lead in Wisconsin and Michigan. This already clearly predicts that in Pennsylvania, where it is currently 9% behind, with 64% processing, not only is this not a basket case, it can be viewed as a straightforward baseline scenario.

This turn of events surprised us because we underestimated the importance of the different dynamics in the Member States.

Previous elections have been characterized by the fact that some processes, regardless of the Member States, have a general effect on the outcome of the elections. In 2016, for example, Trump was underrated across the country and his victory in Florida predicted that he would beat the northern states as well. This was not the case this year: Florida lost to Biden, but surprisingly also leads in southern Arizona, which was basically a Republican state. Despite their underestimation in Florida and Ohio, the Blue Wall states (Wisconsin, Michigan) do not appear to be significantly underestimated.

In Florida and Texas, letter votes helped him, in the north they could cause his loss – this divergent dynamic in the Member States is a new phenomenon in elections, so the previous interpretation mechanisms simply do not work. So with 94% throughput, a 1.4% point advantage, we may have already added North Carolina, recognizing that we cannot reach an overall conclusion this year, We already consider Biden’s translation in this state to be a realistic scenario. So perhaps, while we could expect a significant Trump victory in the morning, we now consider Biden’s victory more likely.

What to look for

Currently a handful of states remain to compete, in which the fate of the presidential election will be decided (Wisconsin just won!):

• In Michigan (16 voters), the Democratic lead is 0.6% with a 95% processing.
• In Nevada (6), Biden’s lead is also 0.6 percentage points, with 67% throughput.
• In Arizona (11), the processing rate is 84%, with a Biden advantage of 3.4 percentage points.
• In North Carolina (15), with a processing rate of 94%, a Trump lead of 1.4 percentage points.
• In Georgia (16), with a processing rate of 94%, Trump’s lead is 2.2 percentage points.
• In Pennsylvania, (20) with 64% processing, Trump had a 9 percentage point lead.

If all were according to the current position, Biden would be the president.

The bad news for Trump is that current trends are not in his favor: Since morning, the lead has steadily declined in many states due to mail-in votes, so next we expect Trump’s lead to melt into some states, and vice versa. Biden (along with Arizona) has already rounded up 248 electricians, Trump only 213. So Biden has it easier: if Pennsylvania wins (than he has a good chance), he has enough to win a state alongside him that isn’t Wisconsin or Nevada. But it’s possible that by the time Pennsylvania votes are counted, Biden will already be the winner. Because if you get to Michigan and Wisconsin, where you already drive, Nevada would be enough; of course, you must keep Arizona. Today there are likely results from Georgia and Wisconsin; They can’t decide the choice yet, but they could give Biden a practically unimportant advantage.

So now we look at Bident as an opportunity, but since this presidential election couldn’t be more exciting than that, it obviously can’t be taken for granted.

Cover image: Getty Images