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Ideas emerged on Tuesday morning that could avoid the veto between Hungary and Poland, so there would be a rule of law mechanism without the two countries contributing to it. The budget for next year, on the other hand, is already a different mass, it would still be pending, which in turn would be good for anyone.
The Hungarian and Polish governments were completely confused by Monday’s veto. There seems to be a stalemate: Budapest and Warsaw will not allow the EU to start allocating hard-to-negotiate stimulus money, it will even give up its own money, there will be no rule of law mechanism. However, most Western countries and the vast majority of the European Parliament will not allow the new budget to start without a rule of law mechanism. All actors have the right to veto.
This would avoid the Hungarian and Polish vetoes.
However, on Tuesday morning, an idea emerged that some people had only talked about in the background until then, writes 444.hu. Lawyers working with the EP have confirmed to the portal that, in principle, the idea could even work.
The basic idea is that the rule of law mechanism can be adopted without Poland and Hungary. The European Parliament is expected to vote on it next week, after which the proposal will be presented to the General Affairs Council and EU ministers, and if approved there, it will enter into force on January 1. On Monday, the qualified majority of ambassadors had a qualified majority – notes 444.hu.
This means that despite the opposition of the Hungarian and Polish Prime Ministers, the mechanism could be armed and therefore even apply to all payments from the beginning of next year; the argument is in accordance with 444.hu. It is true that it would not be a new seven-year budget either, which in turn would mean that the 2020 budget framework would also apply to next year, lengthening the financial cycle that expires this year. That is, how much money came to cohesion this year, to agricultural support, to anything, without so many new budgets next year.
However, based on this argument, the rule of law mechanism that will come into effect next year could apply to these payments, whether they have been voted on by the Hungarian and Polish governments or not, and whether a qualified majority of member states agree, resigning governments could be withdrawn from EU funding. means.
However, it is worth bearing in mind that although the European Commission, Parliament and the Council have so far mentioned the rule of law mechanism alongside the budget, these two things are not strictly linked in legal terms, they are two acts. separate legislative.
I’m not sure if it is so
However, the big idea may not be applicable in the way mentioned above. Among the experts who spoke to 444.hu, there were those who were of the opinion that this mechanism could not be applied to payments decided according to the old order because it would raise the problem of subsequent legislation. Skeptics say the Hungarian and Polish governments could challenge the old spending rules in EU court if the end of such a lawsuit were to come, and it is unclear what the end of such a lawsuit would be and the EU institutions would be in on it. a very uncomfortable position if the rule of law would be tried to be illegally enforced.
At the same time, 444.hu emphasizes that there is no formal implementation of the above scenario yet, the Council has embarked on a path of persuasion for now.
And the recovery fund?
The Brussels portal Bruxinfo also wrote on Monday that if political talks failed to lift the blockade, the EU would have alternatives, including a rescue fund to alleviate the damage caused by the coronavirus despite the veto, which would be vital, especially for the Southern European Member States.
Silvia Merler, former expert at the Bruegel Institute, pointed out that if the equity system could not be changed unanimously, the current MFF (2014-2020) would be the starting point, which does not have the largest recovery fund of 672,500 million of euros. (RRF). The RRF, which is so important to many countries, could break out of the Hungarian-Polish veto lock, for example by transferring it from the EU budget to an ad hoc intergovernmental agreement similar to the ESM. As a result, the fund could be launched for other countries, but the Hungarians and Poles would not receive a penny, while the rule of law would be operational through the MFF and would apply to EU funds from Hungary and Poland. In other words, Merler believes that the hoax between Hungary and Poland could be emptied if the rest of the EU makes it clear that the immediate next step would be to transform the RRF into an intergovernmental agreement.
Do not think it!
Yet another prominent EU expert, Lucas Guttenberg from Berlin, considers outsourcing the EU budget recovery tool a “horrible and unnecessary” idea, in part because such a solution would create a “chaotic situation. “Similar to that of the ESM, in which each transfer would have to be decided unanimously by the participants, and if a special financial instrument to implement the intergovernmental agreement were to issue debt, it would appear statistically on the books of the Member States, that is , the greatest achievement of the recovery instrument, the non-reimbursable non-reimbursable aid. nothing.
With such a solution, the most politically prospective element of the new instrument would also come out of the “safe asset”, while the researcher said there would be uncertainty about who would have to pay the debt. And thirdly, he believes that “this is an EU project” that should not be restarted a few months after Brexit by creating spending structures outside the home just for some people to like their home environment.
Guttenberg believes that, contrary to popular belief, not only the main beneficiaries of the package will lose the veto, but also those countries (the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Denmark and Germany) that can expect a big budget cut from the next MFF.
According to 444.hu, most experts expect real breakthrough only from the summit in Brussels, which begins on December 10, where you can negotiate in person, even in small group retreats, if you manage to hold the meeting due to the virus.
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