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Our full coverage of the event can be read here:
In our introductory question, they wondered if the public expects curfew restrictions until spring. According to two thirds, if not the entire territory of the country, but it will be the case, according to the relative majority in emerging epidemics.
One of the central themes of the conference was the fate of the reimbursement moratorium. 57% of the audience, mainly from the banking sector, would have extended the moratorium, but the vast majority only for a certain group of clients (for example, SMEs). Since then, the government has announced its decision:
It is this measure, the repayment moratorium, that has won the liking of most bankers for the coronavirus among the financial responses of the state, followed by FGS Hair and other loan programs for SMEs. The APR ceiling isn’t exactly a popular measure, but we’ll take a look at it next.
The Hungarian banking sector (including OTP subsidiaries) achieved 106 billion HUF and 46 billion HUF in the first half of the year, and we were curious what the whole year would bring. Six out of 10 voted that the annual profit will be lower than in the first semester, which means that the credit institutions will have losses in the second semester. This may be primarily due to an increase in loan impairment.
On the subject of lifting or extending the payment moratorium, the following graph is interesting, since it shows that as a result of the crisis, by mid-2021, the relative majority expect a default rate of 4-8% in the banking sector loans to moderate instead of the current 4.0%.
Just as the current credit crisis is unlikely to cause a major real estate crisis. At least the developments so far and the results of the public vote suggest so. 28% of the audience only expects to see a drop in national house prices of more than 10% per year in the next 2 years.
In our home loan section, we also asked about expected home loan delays. By mid-2021, 5-10% of home loans can be past due for more than 90 days, according to 48% of the public, with the rest typically expecting a lower rate.
One of the highlights of our conference was the expected launch of consumer-friendly personal loans starting in January. About half of the audience consider the MNB’s rating to be good on its parameters, and the other half are dissatisfied with the interest rate premium or something else.
As already mentioned, the APR ceiling for new consumer credit introduced in mid-March is not very popular in the banking sector, with most condemning it for unnecessarily rejecting new placements.
However, the public does not expect the decline in the personal loan market to continue, the relative majority say that there may be a moderate increase, although there are many who say that the epidemic is full of uncertainty in this area.
The impact of expecting a baby on the personal loan market divides audiences: Slightly more people say that waiting for a baby has a significant crowding out effect on personal loans than the bare minimum.
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