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Although the EU has contracts with various pharmaceutical companies to supply enough vaccines, this is only true on paper. Several non-European countries have contracted before so they will get the vaccine first and there are also pharmaceutical manufacturers in the EU that will only be allowed to use the vaccine for months.
While US leaders are condemned for mishandling the pandemic, while the Germans are praised, the next battle, vaccinating the population against coronavirus infection as soon as possible, could be won by the United States against Germany, according to an article. from Spiegel International. In the United States, 20 million people want to be vaccinated in the next two to three weeks, and by the end of March, 100 million will receive the two-puncture vaccine, representing about 30 percent of the population.
Meanwhile, according to the German Health Ministry, Germany will receive enough 400,000 doses in the first round to vaccinate 200,000 people, and by March, 11 to 13 million people, less than 15 percent of the population, could be protected. The end of the story may be that even in the fall of 2021, there may be restrictions in Germany for lack of protection, as the EU is too late and, if the delivery schedule is taken into account, it has not signed enough vaccines. Furthermore, incoming stocks must be shared between EU Member States.
Misleading math
Scientists say that between 60 and 70 percent of the German population is protected against the coronavirus, which means that 100 to 120 million doses of vaccine are needed to achieve so-called flock protection, because, with a Exception, each vaccine has a double edge. The EU has requested a total of 1.3 billion doses, 18.6 percent of which go to Germans. Those 250 million servings seem to be more than enough, but according to Spiegel’s article, the numbers are misleading.
In the foreseeable future, vaccination could come from two sure sources. American-German Pfizer / BioNTech and American Moderna will be available. The first was authorized on December 21 and the second is expected to be authorized by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on January 6. Germany can expect 45 million doses of the first and 15 million of the second in the first half of 2021. Those 60 million seem so little for so long.
Other shipments are uncertain. Anglo-Swedish duo AstraZeneca / University of Oxford were forced to suspend testing of the product for a time in the fall, and after resuming the studies and running them, they got confusing data on the effectiveness of their vaccine. French Sanofi postponed approval of the vaccination until late 2021, and German CureVac is expected to be unavailable before summer. The best is the American Johnson & Johnson, whose vaccination can be authorized in March.
Slow EU
In reality, the root of the problem lies half a year earlier. Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands made a separate vaccine purchasing alliance in spring 2020 and committed 400 million doses of AstraZeneca as they saw the EU not making progress on this issue, while many countries around the world have already taken action. Then, in mid-June, the European Commission woke up and outlined a common European vaccination strategy, it is true, the slowness may be justified by the fact that health is a competence of the Member States.
Between August and October, the union signed its first contracts with Sanofi, Johnson & Johnson, and AstraZeneca. In the meantime, it did not have a solid agreement with the most promising formulators, the Sanofi / BioNTech and Moderna pair, who had already done well in testing in July, which is a problem because the companies made it clear that they decide the delivery order. based on two aspects: and based on the date of the contract with the buyer.
Franco-German blink
The United States hired the last two drug companies for 600 million and 500 million doses, respectively, in July, and Japan, Canada, Hong Kong and other countries followed suit in late summer and early fall. The EU only signed contracts in mid-November and for far fewer doses than it should. For example, 200 million more, optionally an additional 100 million for a subsequent delivery by Pfizer / BioNTech. According to well-informed sources at Spiegel, the vendor recommended 500 million.
German Health Minister Jens Spahn tried to pressure, among others, to order more from suppliers who already had the product available, but other European countries resisted the demand. For example, France, which claimed 300 million doses had already been ordered from French Sanofi, in other words the Germans could have bounced because there was no German manufacturer in the game. The European Commission denies this explanation, claiming that Paris has not taken steps to protect Sanofi’s interests.
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