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He gave a long interview to Portfolio Gergely voice, professor at the University of Szeged, leader of an epidemiological mathematics team that regularly briefs decision-makers with expert reports. The mathematician said that the reproductive value of the coronavirus epidemic has been above 1 for some time and has exploded in recent days, currently it is estimated at 2-2.5, which he considers very dangerous.
The reproduction number expresses the average number of other people infected by an infected person. This can be used to measure the speed at which the epidemic is spreading.
According to data from the last few days, there has been a change in trend, which means that the virus has accelerated, according to a government expert.
A new strategy is needed
“Reducing the number of contacts in the first wave of the epidemic was the key,” Gergely Röst said of the successful defense. According to their data at the time, the decrease in the number of contacts exceeded 60 percent nationally, and was even greater in certain periods and places, thanks to which we were able to suppress the epidemic. However, the cost of this method is socially high.
“We already emphasized it in April and that has not changed since the need for a combined strategy,” said the mathematician. This includes all distances, “but there is also an urgent need to improve hygiene, the use of masks in certain places, the effectiveness of tests and the follow-up of contacts.”
According to Gergely Röst, it is problematic that we still do not perform enough tests: most clinical tests are done, the monitoring function of tests is not really. That is, those infected are not correctly mapped, so it is not possible to isolate them or take specific measures to break the chain of infection.
Intrusion?
When the holidays started, our contacts started to return too.
The mathematician spoke about the summer situation.
However, government speakers don’t make much mention of the introduction of the goose for the increasing number of cases:
Foreign filings were really dominant in early July, but since then their share has dropped significantly, in part because the number of our own cases has also increased. Currently, the proportion of imported and related cases is less than 10%
Röst said, so it’s no wonder that
Another interesting fact is that “the average age of the cases was still 69 years in April, which is now 31 years, which means that half of the cases are under 31 years.” This is due to the fact that, although the number of infected people is growing rapidly, the number of deaths is essentially stagnant.
However, five weeks after the increase in the number of cases, there was also an increase in the number of deaths.
Said the mathematician about a similar situation in Florida earlier.
What measures would be necessary?
According to Gergely Röst, the R-value now seems very dangerous, monitoring it is at least as important as the current daily cases. Respectively, it is also important to see if nodules form or if the virus spreads everywhere.
It is true that the school will increase the number of reproductions
Röst said, but added, “that age matters enough, those under 10 can play a completely different role than the high school age group.” Children pass through the infection largely asymptomatic or with much milder symptoms than adults, but the small proportion with symptoms show the same viral concentration as adults.
If we go to school with an increasing trend, a reproduction number greater than 1, there is a risk that we will take this to such a high level that it is already causing a great epidemic.
The mathematician warned.
As the introduction is no longer the most important factor in the spread of the epidemic, he said that the closure of the border is not the best solution and “therefore, it would be time to focus on the national spread now.”
Just because the second wave is different from the first:
The current wave also differs from the spring in that, while a significant proportion of cases at that time were attributable to institutions (hospitals, social homes), community spread currently dominates.
Featured image: MTI / Zoltán Balogh
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