The terrifying phenomenon of the coronavirus is happening before our eyes in Hungary

The sad phenomenon began

In the second half of August, the homeland of the coronavirus epidemic changed, the number of daily cases began to increase dramatically, the second wave began, which differed from the first spring wave in several respects. It was largely prevalent among the young (who can asymptomatically infect in large numbers, thus forming latent chains of infection) and was no longer characterized by institutions (nursing homes, hospitals) but was dominated by community spread. It is no coincidence that in late August and early September, experts from the Epidemiological Epidemiology and Modeling Project of the Ministry of Innovation and Technology, which helps the government’s epidemiological defense, sounded the alarm consecutively. In an interview with Portfolio, Gergely Röst, a mathematician from Szeged, drew attention to the fact that the phenomenon of summer seen in Florida can also occur in Hungary. Which means that five weeks after the increase in infection rates, however, there was also an increase in deaths. Russian epidemiologist Beatrix, who is also a member of the analysis team, pointed out at a conference that if there are no quick and effective measures, the number of infected people in the elderly will also increase, leading to an increase in deaths. In her presentation, the epidemiologist illustrated in separate figures the sad processes that took place in Florida.

In our article published in mid-September, we showed that it seems that we are facing a phenomenon called the Flodira effect also by the experts in Hungary. In other words, the spread of the epidemic is so great that it is inevitable that the infection will be more prevalent among the elderly and the most vulnerable.

A week later, the Hungarian epidemiological research group demonstrated with a heat map that the coronavirus epidemic had also made its way into the older age group.

The numbers prove the researchers, again

Assuming that the epidemic reached a level in the last week of August and counted 5 weeks from then (as was the case with the Florida phenomenon), deaths related to the coronary virus will begin to increase in early October. In line with this, the leaked national expert forecast that an increase in viral mortality is expected in early October.

Based on the Hungarian coronavirus figures published in the first days of October, it was decided:

reality once again confirmed the predictions of the epidemiological and mathematical research group. In practice, the experts’ previous forecast was accurately performed to date.

These processes are illustrated in the following two figures, beginning in March and once in August.

Lesson

We could also learn from the epidemic processes in Hungary in recent weeks, which are extremely unfavorable and sad in international comparison.

It is in the common interest of the entire country to avoid extremely harsh restrictive measures and thus paralyze life and, through it, the entire Hungarian economy.

We’ve collected what we think are the most important lessons:

1. The treatment results for the first wave, as well as the accurate expert forecasts for the second wave, presented above, demonstrated: it is worth listening to researchers, mathematicians, epidemiologists, virologists who support the work of the government. That is, if one of the experts sends a sharp warning, it is worth taking it seriously and at least considering why you are claiming them, rather than calling it a riot. Experts also see the cost of the first wave of treatment to stop normal life and stop the economy from operating, so they also agree on the need for a strategy to avoid it.
2. National coronavirus testing capabilities have reached their upper limit, with several dire consequences. Contact investigation and testing can no longer track the true spread of the virus in the country, and only the true size of the epidemic and the number of patients treated at the hospital can be estimated. In light of all this, it would be very necessary for the government to change its current special pathway coronavirus testing practices and it should substantially increase the capacity of the laboratory.
3. Powerful and unified communication and a strong government campaign Compliance with the epidemiological regulations currently in force (use of masks, distance, hygiene regulations) must be promoted precisely to avoid the need for new regulations.
4. But beyond the above people also have work to do, if we want to learn from the processes of the last weeks. Strictly comply with epidemiological regulations, pay attention to others and others, avoid close contact with our acquaintances, friends, relatives (elderly, chronically ill, underlying patients) in the vulnerable group and keep up to date with as many credible sources as possible possible to be aware of the situation. with its seriousness.

If all this remains, the daily number of infected people will no longer give a true picture of the exact size and extent of the epidemic, with the result that instead of the active number of cases, the importance of other indicators, such as hospital and severe cases and mortality, continues to grow. In his previous interview, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also referred to this, when he stated that during the second wave of the epidemic, the focus should not be on diseases, but on mainly deaths for. The big question is where in the eyes of the government the threshold is in this sense, that is, the level of deaths where it already has to consider: is it embarking on a stronger austerity path or choosing to let go of the most serious coronavirus cases. And this threshold is clearly determined by the state of mind of society, which the government certainly monitors continuously, in real time (in which case it says “we have observed and people do not want another closure, they want to live their life”). However, it is clear that this threshold is a long way off at the moment. (Viktor Orbán, for example, forecast a difficult 7-8 month period for hospitals on Saturday, for example) and the government is confident that the health system preparation that has been carried out so far and that it can charge a New momentum with medical wage increases will allow the country, over a long period of time, to reach the critical threshold (jump in the number of daily deaths) very slowly. However, we still cannot say whether this long-overdue second line of defense – enormous hospital capabilities – will play the role the government hopes for. We hope we never get to the point of finding out.

Cover image source: MTI / kormany.hu / Károly Árvai